Hungary - Things are heating up between the leaders of the united opposition. Former Prime Minister and President of the Democratic Coalition (DK) Ferenc Gyurcsány openly mocks the unique candidate Péter Márki-Zay, while Péter Jakab’s Jobbik no longer provides financial support to the campaign. Meanwhile, Fidesz is keeping scores, exploiting the clumsiness of Péter Márki-Zay and muddying the waters by relentlessly hitting Budapest mayor, Gergely Karácsony. What is happening within the Hungarian opposition?
Péter Márki-Zay, not such great casting idea?
On the evening of the mayor of Hódmezővásárhel’s surprise victory in the united opposition primaries on 17 October, 2021, observers agreed that this single candidate was going to give Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz a hard time. Indeed, Péter Márki-Zay has an almost perfect political virginity going for him, the image of someone disappointed with Fidesz and an opponent within the opposition, conservative aspects, a presence in the provinces obtained thanks to the first success of the “all against Fidesz” strategy as well as international experience in the private sector allowing him to compensate for little political experience. On paper, this candidate was therefore thought to combine qualities that could bring together opposition voters and capture Fidesz voters. This seductive reasoning nevertheless disregards two electoral strategy constants, which hold true in Hungary.
Victory in a primary (or a party congress) is capitalised over time if it is obtained by winning the most left positions in the case of a left-wing primary or the most right positions if it is a right-wing primary. This rule – which, like all rules, can suffer from exception – was not respected in the Hungarian case, Péter Márki-Zay having won the primary by occasionally bordering on Fidesz themes.
