Ukraine's accession to the bloc carries significant economic and security risks for Hungary, making it essential that Hungarian citizens have a say in a consultative vote before any decision is made on this matter, PM Orban stated following the Brussels summit regarding Ukraine's potential EU membership.
Viktor Orban also emphasized that we are talking about a heavily armed country, yet Ukraine is not known for public safety, and taking on such a risk under the current circumstances would be highly irresponsible.
A leading player in crime
It is an undeniable fact that Ukraine's EU accession poses security risks for the region, including Hungary.
Ukraine has never been known for its outstanding public safety; organized crime continues to thrive to this day, and this situation existed long before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war - which has only made things worse. Ukraine's cross-border drug and arms smuggling network is considered one of the strongest in the world. It is hardly surprising that before the Russian invasion, Ukraine ranked 34th out of 193 countries on the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GITOC) crime index, making it the third worst in Europe.
Western weapons could end up with gangsters and terrorists
First and foremost, it is worth considering that Western weapons sent to Ukraine can easily end up - and have already ended up - in the hands of local and international organized crime groups. Within months of the war breaking out, reports surfaced that illegal weapons from the Ukrainian battlefield had appeared on the Balkan market.
In other words, while Ukraine demands more weapons, it is simultaneously smuggling out some of the arms it receives for enormous sums of money.
Even Ukrainian officials have admitted that a certain portion of Western weapon shipments are indeed ending up on the black market. Citing U.S. intelligence sources, CNN reported as early as April 2022 that Washington could only track the weapons it sent to Ukraine for a short period. A Pentagon report stated that arms smugglers and terrorists were looting shipments. Experts have warned that up to 40 percent of the weapons intended for Ukraine may have fallen into criminal hands.
Interpol chief issues warning
Interpol has also raised alarms about weapons sent to Ukraine falling into unauthorized hands. Criminals are taking advantage of the chaotic situation and the easy availability of weapons, including heavy arms. These weapons will be accessible on the black market and pose a serious challenge, warned the head of Interpol. So, it is not difficult to conclude that if a war-torn, heavily armed country joins the EU, Hungary will also become a victim of criminal organizations and illegal arms trafficking.
Drugs in every quantity
Another critical issue is that even before the war, Ukraine was one of Eastern Europe’s largest drug distribution hubs. It served as a transit route for heroin from Afghanistan, complementing the Balkan and Caucasus routes. Before the war, Ukraine ranked fourth in Europe for heroin seizures. Cocaine from Latin America flowed into the country through the Black Sea. Meanwhile, local production of amphetamines was on the rise—in 2020 alone, authorities dismantled 67 illegal laboratories, the highest reported number in any country worldwide. Although cigarettes are not classified as narcotics, it is worth noting that Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe for illegal cigarette production and trade.