Ukraine's accession to the bloc carries significant economic and security risks for Hungary, making it essential that Hungarian citizens have a say in a consultative vote before any decision is made on this matter, PM Orban stated following the Brussels summit regarding Ukraine's potential EU membership.
Viktor Orban also emphasized that we are talking about a heavily armed country, yet Ukraine is not known for public safety, and taking on such a risk under the current circumstances would be highly irresponsible.
A leading player in crime
It is an undeniable fact that Ukraine's EU accession poses security risks for the region, including Hungary.
Ukraine has never been known for its outstanding public safety; organized crime continues to thrive to this day, and this situation existed long before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war - which has only made things worse. Ukraine's cross-border drug and arms smuggling network is considered one of the strongest in the world. It is hardly surprising that before the Russian invasion, Ukraine ranked 34th out of 193 countries on the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GITOC) crime index, making it the third worst in Europe.
Western weapons could end up with gangsters and terrorists
First and foremost, it is worth considering that Western weapons sent to Ukraine can easily end up - and have already ended up - in the hands of local and international organized crime groups. Within months of the war breaking out, reports surfaced that illegal weapons from the Ukrainian battlefield had appeared on the Balkan market.
In other words, while Ukraine demands more weapons, it is simultaneously smuggling out some of the arms it receives for enormous sums of money.
Even Ukrainian officials have admitted that a certain portion of Western weapon shipments are indeed ending up on the black market. Citing U.S. intelligence sources, CNN reported as early as April 2022 that Washington could only track the weapons it sent to Ukraine for a short period. A Pentagon report stated that arms smugglers and terrorists were looting shipments. Experts have warned that up to 40 percent of the weapons intended for Ukraine may have fallen into criminal hands.
Interpol chief issues warning
Interpol has also raised alarms about weapons sent to Ukraine falling into unauthorized hands. Criminals are taking advantage of the chaotic situation and the easy availability of weapons, including heavy arms. These weapons will be accessible on the black market and pose a serious challenge, warned the head of Interpol. So, it is not difficult to conclude that if a war-torn, heavily armed country joins the EU, Hungary will also become a victim of criminal organizations and illegal arms trafficking.
Drugs in every quantity
Another critical issue is that even before the war, Ukraine was one of Eastern Europe’s largest drug distribution hubs. It served as a transit route for heroin from Afghanistan, complementing the Balkan and Caucasus routes. Before the war, Ukraine ranked fourth in Europe for heroin seizures. Cocaine from Latin America flowed into the country through the Black Sea. Meanwhile, local production of amphetamines was on the rise—in 2020 alone, authorities dismantled 67 illegal laboratories, the highest reported number in any country worldwide. Although cigarettes are not classified as narcotics, it is worth noting that Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe for illegal cigarette production and trade.
Collapsing state unable to control its underworld
The Ukrainian state is incapable of handling local crime syndicates, and dismantling one or two criminal networks is merely the tip of the iceberg. A case in point: Ukrainian authorities recently dismantled a nationwide drug ring that produced nearly one ton of amphetamine and alpha-PVP per month. Authorities conducted over 230 searches in 20 regions across the country, arrested more than 60 individuals, and dismantled 19 drug laboratories belonging to the criminal gang involved in the production and distribution of psychotropic substances.
One of the criminal organizations within this network maintained smuggling routes to import chemicals necessary for drug production from Poland.
These compounds were stored in specialized Ukrainian warehouses and distributed to five drug cartels, which then manufactured alpha-PVP and amphetamines in Kyiv, as well as in the Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, and Cherkasy regions. This paints a clear picture of what we could face if these cartels established themselves in Hungary through Ukraine’s EU membership. There is a real risk that Hungary would be flooded with Ukrainian drugs.
Hungary could be inundated by Ukrainian drugs
Arról nem is beszélve, hogy micsoda problémát okozhat az (pláne ukrán EU-tagság esetén), hogy egy éve Volodimir Zelenszkij ukrán elnök aláírta a cannabis orvosi célú használatát engedélyező törvényt. Magyarország szempontjából sem mindegy, keleti szomszédunknál milyen szabályozás van érvényben a marihuánát illetően. Egy olyan országról beszélünk, ahol háború dúl, teljes a káosz, a gazdaság, az egészségügyi és szociális ellátórendszer romokban. Nagy a veszélye annak, hogy Ukrajnában kettős drogpiac fog kialakulni – hívta fel a figyelmet a Mandiner megkeresésére Téglásy Kristóf, a Drogkutató Intézet stratégiai igazgatója.
Adding to the concerns, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law a year ago allowing the medical use of cannabis. This raises serious concerns for Hungary, as our eastern neighbor’s regulations on marijuana will directly impact us. We are talking about a war-torn country in complete chaos, with a collapsed economy and a devastated healthcare and social system. There is a significant risk that Ukraine will develop a dual drug market, Kristof Teglasy, strategic director of the Drug Research Institute, told Mandiner.
According to the expert, if mass cannabis smuggling attempts begin, it will inevitably impact Hungary, especially if our healthcare system is forced to treat addicts. Teglasy believes that in the future, there is a serious risk of large-scale marijuana smuggling from Ukraine to Hungary and the European Union, which would greatly boost the black market and worsen public safety.
A szakértő szerint ha tömegével próbálnak majd cannabisz átcsempészni, az idővel Magyarországra is hatással lehet, pláne, ha később a magyar egészségügynek kell ápolnia a függőket. Téglásy Kristóf úgy vélte, fennáll a veszélye annak, hogy a jövőben Ukrajnából nagy mennyiségben igyekeznek marihuánát juttatni Magyarországra és az Európai Unióba, ami alaposan fellendítheti a feketekereskedelmet és ronthat a közbiztonság helyzetén.
Europe’s largest brothel
And if all this were not enough to deter Ukraine’s EU membership, we must also remember that Ukrainian organized crime has long been involved in prostitution. If Ukraine joins the European community, there is no doubt that even more victims and criminal gangs will arrive. As far back as 2012, Ukraine was dubbed “Europe’s Largest Brothel,” and since the war began, countless prostitutes and the gangs controlling them have flooded Europe. While Ukraine officially fights against prostitution, it does so only in words—because, in reality, the women only receive protection from police.
To make matters worse, there have been instances where senior officials from the migration police department covered up for prostitution rings operating in the capital and other regions.
The high-ranking officers were assisting a criminal network that exploited vulnerable women aged 18 to 30 as prostitutes and worked to recruit new girls for “escort services.” According to reports, this network operated across Ukraine and even trafficked women abroad. We can only repeat: Ukraine’s accession to the EU would cause unimaginable damage, a surge in crime, and severe security problems for Hungary and other member states.
