Waiting for a Breakthrough

Trump’s inauguration has significantly shifted the global political landscape, and this can be leveraged with smart diplomacy.

US President Donald Trump (l) greets his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky at the West Wing of the White House in Washington, on February 28, 20025 (Photo: MTI / AP / Ben Curtis)

2025 will be the year of breakthrough. Hungary’s room for maneuver has significantly expanded – PM Orban said, speaking at yesterday's meeting of Hungarian diplomatic mission leaders. The fact is that Trump’s inauguration has significantly altered the global political landscape, and this can be leveraged with smart diplomacy.

However, the European mainstream has so far been unable to step out of the role it has maneuvered itself into. According to the roles assigned, Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim, Europe is the helper of the victim, while Biden is the good cop, and Trump is now the bad cop.

To avoid falling out of its role, the European mainstream will have to wait for Zelensky (or whoever replaces him) to throw in the towel, negotiate some kind of settlement with Putin, and free Europe from the obligation to continue aiding the victim. Of course, this is not about humanitarian aid – Hungary has also provided larger-than-ever humanitarian assistance – but about the money, the horses, and the weapons that continue to unnecessarily prolong the war every single day.

In the most essential issues, the positions of the parties still remain far apart. For example, Moscow will not accept Ukraine’s NATO membership, while Kyiv refuses to consider having to give it up. It’s easy to imagine, just based on the personalities of the two most important political figures in the world, that the major breakthrough will happen at a personal meeting between Trump and Putin. Similarly, it’s likely that the Hungarian leadership, which foresaw the consequences of the 2015 migration crisis, will, as others also acknowledge, achieve a “masterstroke” as an early advocate for ending the war and an opponent of Ukraine’s EU accession.