Waiting for a Breakthrough

Trump’s inauguration has significantly shifted the global political landscape, and this can be leveraged with smart diplomacy.

US President Donald Trump (l) greets his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky at the West Wing of the White House in Washington, on February 28, 20025 (Photo: MTI / AP / Ben Curtis)

Every new day brings us one day closer to the end of our lives – that's a cliché. But are we also getting closer to peace in Ukraine? This is what the world has been concerned with – at least Europe, for sure – for the past three years, and since Donald Trump’s inauguration, even more so. When the first hundred days of his presidency are over, the bill will come due.

For now, Trump is doing relatively well. He has moved mountains enough to kickstart a peace process, no matter what the eventual outcome may be. If, in the past, the various stages of the ongoing Middle Eastern turmoil could be called a peace process, then it's at least worth a bit of optimism that the U.S. President has managed to get Putin and Zelensky to the negotiating table.

We’re waiting to see what will come of the partial ceasefire plan, whether it can be expanded into a longer and more comprehensive one. It comess as no surprise that the Russians – as they have indicated – would not accept “peacekeepers” from NATO member states. Such a suggestion would more likely reflect poorly on those who proposed it, given that the essence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict over the past decades has been Moscow’s resistance to the West playing any political role in its backyard. However, the positive takeaway is that the Russians seem open to some kind of arrangement, which is not surprising given that the war is costing them hundreds of millions of dollars daily, a burden they would gladly be rid of – with face-saving, of course, without losing dignity.

On the other hand, the Western European powers, who are mostly unfamiliar with realist thinking, would continue to supply weapons to Ukraine and stoke the war further, while it’s crystal clear that Kyiv cannot meaningfully improve its position and is only suffering additional losses. But – sooner or later, hopefully sooner – life will validate the truth of the pro-peace camp, retrospectively justifying those who, while not denying the Russian aggression of 2022, have long been calling for an end to the war, reckoning with reality. Our country is leading the pack in this.

2025 will be the year of breakthrough. Hungary’s room for maneuver has significantly expanded – PM Orban said, speaking at yesterday's meeting of Hungarian diplomatic mission leaders. The fact is that Trump’s inauguration has significantly altered the global political landscape, and this can be leveraged with smart diplomacy.

However, the European mainstream has so far been unable to step out of the role it has maneuvered itself into. According to the roles assigned, Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim, Europe is the helper of the victim, while Biden is the good cop, and Trump is now the bad cop.

To avoid falling out of its role, the European mainstream will have to wait for Zelensky (or whoever replaces him) to throw in the towel, negotiate some kind of settlement with Putin, and free Europe from the obligation to continue aiding the victim. Of course, this is not about humanitarian aid – Hungary has also provided larger-than-ever humanitarian assistance – but about the money, the horses, and the weapons that continue to unnecessarily prolong the war every single day.

In the most essential issues, the positions of the parties still remain far apart. For example, Moscow will not accept Ukraine’s NATO membership, while Kyiv refuses to consider having to give it up. It’s easy to imagine, just based on the personalities of the two most important political figures in the world, that the major breakthrough will happen at a personal meeting between Trump and Putin. Similarly, it’s likely that the Hungarian leadership, which foresaw the consequences of the 2015 migration crisis, will, as others also acknowledge, achieve a “masterstroke” as an early advocate for ending the war and an opponent of Ukraine’s EU accession.