Victory by Geert Wilders Bolsters Orban's Policy, Senior Political Analyst Says

The Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won the Dutch elections by a large margin, but it is far from certain that it will come to power, because Brussels will go out of its way to push them in the background. By mandating Wilders, Dutch voters sent a strong message that they reject migration, Agoston Samual Mraz, CEO of Nezopont Institute, told Magyar Nemzet.

Scheveningen, 2023. november 23. Geert Wilders, a jobboldali Szabadságpárt (PVV) vezetõje nyilatkozik a sajtó képviselõinek a holland elõrehozott parlamenti választások estéjén, 2023. november 22-én Scheveningenben. Az elsõ felmérések szerint Wilders bevándorlásellenes pártja kapta a legtöbb szavazatot. MTI/EPA/ANP/Remko De Waal Fotó: Remko De Waal

The Netherlands held early elections after the government headed by Mark Rutte, right-wing liberal prime minister in office for 12 years, resigned in July this year due to failing to reach an agreement on a migration policy issue, namely the family reunification of refugees. In the elections, the Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders won, securing  38 seats. The right-wing liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and Frans Timmermans' left-wing alliance won 24 seats each.

Although Wilders had an electoral victory, he may not come to power, just as we have seen in Poland recently where the Law and Justice Party (PiS) won, but their chances of forming a government are very slim. And recently in Spain, thanks to an absurd coalition, it is not the winning party that will govern the country, and the same may happen in the Netherlands.

The fact that Geert Wilders won does not mean at all that he will govern,

said Agoston Samual Mraz, CEO of Nezopont Institute. It is possible that a coalition made up of parties that have failed to win the election may form a government, and this is due to the peculiarity of the Dutch electoral system, which is based on party list and proportional representation, giving all parties a chance of getting into parliament. This creates a very fragmented and colorful parliament, making the formation of a stable coalition rather difficult. Former Prime Minister Mark Rutte was only able to stay in power for so long because he played his cards cleverly.

It should be noted that the political crisis will further deepen if an illegitimate, unstable coalition is to  lead the country after such a clear election result,

Mraz highlighted.

It is possible that Wilders will be left out of government: even though his party won 38 seats, they will have no say as an opposition party and will not be able to govern at any level. For now, a lengthy series of negotiations is about to begin, with the outcome being influenced by many issues. One possible scenario is that the PVV will eventually have to form a coalition with the VVD if they want to govern. In other words, whatever happens, a diverse coalition is to come to power in the Netherlands.

Rutte did not run in the elections, and although he promised to quit politics altogether when he stepped down, this may not mark the end of his career.

However, the career marred by scandals and lies and characterized by pitting former allies against one another many times is over. The word is getting around that the ex-PM is eyeing the post of NATO secretary general, which describes well the current state of the Brussels elite. His party, the VVD, has spectacularly failed to challenge the PVV.

Frans Timmermans, the Hungarian-hater politician, returning to Dutch domestic politics in the summer, did not cause euphoria even among the Dutch.

It is safe to say that he lost this election. The 24 mandates that his party gained could be worth a lot in the potential government coalition negotiations, but if he does become prime minister as many were hinting, it would be an illegitimate government,

 the expert emphasized.

Curtailing migration is pan-European issue

Migration has become one of the defining questions in the Dutch election campaign. The early elections had to be held because Mark Rutte called the disparity of opinion on the migration issue insoluble and the four leading parties at the time came to the conclusion that no agreement could be reached.

The number of people arriving in the country almost doubled last year alone, which further aggravated the already severe housing crisis. The now victorious Wilders promised during the campaign that he would block the "migrant tsunami".

By electing Wilders, the Dutch have sent a strong message indicating their rejection of migration, which clearly shows how significant the issue can become in next year's European Parliament elections. Although many seem to think that migration is a topic only in Hungary, each of these election results shows that it is increasingly becoming a pan-European issue.

Wilders's victory confirms the policy that Viktor Orban has been pursuing for years, and is also a clear sign that the anti-migration phenomenon is a pan-European issue,

 the analyst highlighted. "This, for now, looks promising regarding the parliamentary elections in June," he added, recalling that the Netherlands was one of the countries that rejected the EU's association agreement with Ukraine. The Dutch population can identify with several questions raised in the Hungarian National Consultation.

Brussels bureaucrats are clearly running a smear campaign against Wilders,

they are trying to influence Dutch domestic politics by not allowing negotiations with him. And this way they want to block him from having any influence in the Dutch government. We can be sure that the mouthpieces of Brussels will do everything to prevent his coming to power.

Cover photo: Geert Wilders, leader of the right-wing Dutch Party for Freedom (PVV) (Photo: MTI/EPA/ANP/Remko De Waal)