Crucial Months Ahead

THE DARK SIDE OF THE EARTH: A crisis-ridden Europe faces a bumpy road, with Ukraine making the ride even rougher.

The sun will rise on January 1st as it has always done before, we normally say, but luckily this will not be the case in 2025 on the Hungary-Romania border. On that day, Hungary's eastern neighbor and Bulgaria will become full members of the EU's integrated border management system, the Schengen area. So everything is in place to end the queues at the dozens of Hungarian-Romanian border crossing points, where hundreds of thousands of visitors, tourists, pilgrims, business travelers and families piled up entering and leaving the country on some of the weekends. (Random checks will remain.) The decision on the accession is one of the outstanding successes of Hungary's presidency of the Council of the European Union over the past six months.

Years ago, our southern neighbor, Serbia, along with Montenegro were promised EU accession in 2025 - this remains an embarrassing flaw. Podgorica considers entry in 2028 realistic, but Belgrade does not. 

As a neighboring country to the Western Balkans, it is hard not to notice how the mainstream in Brussels has forgotten about this religiously, ethnically and linguistically complex region, which has demonstrated the security risks it poses on several occasions recently. 

Serbia's accession to the EU as soon as possible could be the most important thing for only us Hungarians - because of the ethnic Hungarians living in Vojvodina and good bilateral relations - but due to the country's position on the migration route across the Balkans, it would also be in the obvious interest of the whole of Europe.

The EU's attention has been focused on Ukraine for the past three years, and it is feared that Europe will create expectations in the Ukrainians beyond the war, which it will not be able to, or perhaps - which would be unfair - will not want to fulfill. The end of this could be that the EU can neither swallow nor spit out this huge Eastern European country. One way or another, the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end sooner or later. Let's take a look at some figures to assess what kind of task the European Union, which is already strained by internal contradictions, will take on if it continues to court the Ukrainians next year.

Firstly, Ukraine will have to be rebuilt. The cost of post-war reconstruction was estimated at about five hundred billion dollars in the first half of the year, but according to a study by CEPA, a Washington-based research institute, it could reach one trillion dollars. It should be added that, at European level, Ukraine was huge and underdeveloped – meaning unfinanceable – even before the war. It may sound surprising, but Ukraine would be the country with the largest territory in the EU, if we count only France's European territories, while it would be the fifth or sixth most influential in the EU's Council in terms of population. By comparison, Ukraine ranks 91st regarding GDP per capita calculated on purchasing power parity, behind Botswana and Iran, slightly ahead of Mongolia, and 100th on the Human Development Index (HDI). (Placed between Jordan and Tunisia.) And then we didn't even look at aspects that cannot be quantified like the rule of law, corruption, nationality and minority rights, such as those of ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia. In any case, those who promote Ukraine's EU admission should be aware that this issue is perfectly suitable for dismantling the European Union, just as the fierce demand for Kyiv's NATO membership is for sparking a third world war.

It is worth dwelling on Ukraine because Europe has taken the country on its back and it is unclear when and how to put it down. This is a very serious issue in case of a country in need of external funding at such a level, because Europe has no money either. A shortfall of tens of billions of euros has largely contributed to the fall of both the German and French governments, which is a rare coincidence in time for the tandem supposedly destined to lead Europe. The Germans will hold parliamentary elections in February, while French President Emmanuel Macron is going out his way to avoid this for the time being, preferring to change his heads of government like underwear. The Germans, who have been "blessed" with Olaf Scholz for the past three years, will soon have a new government, but no radical change can be expected in Berlin even if the CDU/CSU wins the election (apart from some perceptible improvement, for example, in Hungarian-German relations.) Macron is struggling, he has two years to go and cannot be re-elected. In both countries, political acrobatics aimed to sideline the anti-immigration right wing - as also seen in Austria - but this is only putting the problems off.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was skillfully pushed out of the regional governments that were formed after the September elections. Before that, we would have said that the AfD "won" the elections in Thuringia, by almost ten percentage points, but in the end victory didn't even earn them a warm handshake. The Freedom Party of Austria, the FPO, was also forced to learn the same lesson.

No wonder that this understanding of democracy leads to the further strengthening of the Right in Europe and makes it increasingly difficult to set up government coalitions without their representatives. 

In Saxony, for example, only a minority cabinet could be formed, while in Thuringia and Brandenburg, comrade Sahra Wagenknecht's self-named party was brought into government to shut out the AfD. Somehow they are not so squeamish about neo-communists over there.

Currently, Europe has no leader, unless we consider Ursula von der Leyen to be one. (Of course, in twenty years' time, when a neo-Marxist Muslim immigrant is at the helm, we may weep for the return of this Lutheran woman with seven children. Some already wish for Angela Merkel to return.) Europe has ceased to be a factor in global politics, and has dropped out of the quartet that consisted of the United States, Europe, Russia and China. In the Middle East, one of the two major crisis hotspots in the world, no one really cares what Europe thinks; this is hardly surprising when EU member states vote in three ways on Israel in the UN (for, against, abstaining). But in Ukraine, too, Europe is regarded as a loyal NATO lieutenant of the United States, and this is how it is seen in Moscow, with dents here and there. This role could change: in an article two weeks ago, we wrote that Donald Trump's forthcoming presidency could change the relationship between America and Europe, and NATO's whole force field.

In any case, crucial months are ahead.

Trump's inauguration in January could set the tone, with Bundestag elections coming up in Germany a month later. What Romania does about its presidential election, the second round of which was canceled at the last moment by the Constitutional Court a few weeks ago, invalidating the entire contest, is of particular importance to Hungary as a neighbor, but could also send waves across Europe. Finally, in May - let's not look further than that - Poland will hold a presidential election, which is very important for the domestic political balance. Andrzej Duda, Poland's right-wing president, cannot be re-elected, and the polls currently show Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, in the lead.

It would be a great victory for Donald Tusk's government, which is on hostile terms with Hungary's leadership, if Duda was replaced by Trzaskowski and they could run Poland together, given that the president of the Republic of Poland also has important powers. Hungarian-Polish political relations are unfortunately not the brightest at the moment, which is also indicated by the asylum Hungary granted to Marcin Romanowski, Poland's former deputy justice minister. Improvement in relations can be expected to occur in parallel with the war in Ukraine drawing to an end. By the way, on January 1, Warsaw will take over the rotating presidency of the EU Council from Hungary. You'll never guess what's at the top of Poland's foreign policy agenda for the period! I will quote: "To seek sustained EU support for Ukraine and its reconstruction at political, military and economic levels". All in all, the sun will rise on January 1st as it has done before.