As Magyar Nemzet highlighted in an earlier piece, European politicians gathered in Paris on Monday after U.S. officials announced at the Munich Security Conference that they would commence negotiations with Russia to end the Ukraine war — without Ukraine or Europe at the table. During the conference in Riyadh, the two sides agreed to continue talks and began preparations for a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. EU leaders, however, did not take this development lightly, declaring in Paris that peace could not be achieved without their involvement. We analyzed these latest developments with Zoltan Koskovics, a geopolitical analyst at the Budapest-based Center for Fundamental Rights.
Talks held without Ukraine
When asked why Ukraine was not invited to Riyadh, the analyst explained that the country had become a disruptive factor.
It was expected that, in the initial phase of negotiations, Moscow and Washington would seek to eliminate all obstacles to reaching an agreement on the broader framework of a resolution. Unfortunately for Kyiv, it has become one of those obstacles,
– Mr. Koskovics explained.
He added that while Ukraine cannot be permanently excluded from the peace process, it remains uncertain whether President Volodymyr Zelensky will even be in office by the time Ukraine is eventually brought into the discussions.
Moscow has long considered the current Ukrainian leadership neither legitimate nor a credible negotiating partner. Donald Trump has also hinted that Zelensky is unpopular and has suggested that elections should be held in Ukraine,
– he added.
PM Orban tried to warn Europe
The EU was also left out of the Riyadh negotiations, which, according to Mr. Koskovics, is hardly surprising.
Trump has made it clear that these negotiations are about peace, and there is no room for pro-war sabotage. That alone excludes EU leaders - after all, apart from Prime Minister Viktor Orban, no one in Europe has been advocating for peace,
– he said.
The analyst pointed out that the panic among European leaders stems from their failure over the past three years to assess their own interests rationally. As a result of their pro-war policies, the EU’s economy has suffered significant losses.
For three years, Viktor Orban repeatedly warned his European counterparts that if they did not change their Ukraine policy, Moscow and Washington would exclude them from the resolution process. And this is exactly what happened,
– Mr. Koskovics recalled. He also noted that the European elite had even branded the Hungarian prime minister’s peace mission as "betrayal." While the EU will have a role in the future - for instance, in lifting sanctions - major powers are seeking to force the bloc to accept a predetermined outcome.
Peace is now closer
The meeting in Riyadh could mark a significant step toward ending the conflict, but according to Mr. Koskovics, setting a date for a Trump-Putin summit will be an even more crucial milestone.
A meeting at the foreign minister level is the second-highest forum in diplomatic relations, and today in Riyadh, Ministers Lavrov and Rubio probably discussed very concrete issues,
– he emphasized.
The analyst believes that the negotiations did not start today but have likely been ongoing since January 20, only kept secret until now.
The next decisive development is the timing of a Trump-Putin summit. Some sources suggest it could happen within weeks, which would be a major reason for optimism,
– Mr. Koskovics concluded.
Cover photo: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, at the Riyadh meeting (Photo: AFP)
