In the End, Europe Will Be Forced to Its Knees

The pro-war polcy has failed.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas (Photo: Anadolu/AFP)

The bloodshed has been ongoing for more than three years, yet we have seen no substantive results — including from London to Paris, from Berlin to Warsaw, from Brussels to the Baltics. They are consistent in only one thing: they demand war, they seek to isolate Russia, and they want to bring it to its knees. President Putin must be overthrown. Whether this is even possible does not concern these politicians—nor does it matter to them whether their voters agree with these goals. This is something Germany’s radical green foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, openly expressed when she declared: "I stand with the Ukrainian people for as long as it takes. It doesn't matter what my German voters think."

Yet, this is where we stand in Europe today. So let's examine how the past three years have validated this policy. In the weeks following Russia’s attack, the EU began implementing its sanctions packages. To date, there have been sixteen of them. The declared goal was to bring Russia to its knees through these restrictive economic and financial measures. One of the first steps was to disconnect Russian banks and economic actors from the international electronic accounting system, thereby limiting interbank business transactions and excluding them from the global financial system.

What happened? The Russians created their own alternative system, which twenty countries have joined in just two years. Additionally, they established new trade routes, keeping their financial system operational—partly through covert intelligence-backed enterprises and assistance from states opposed to the West.

So much so that, even despite the sanctions, they have managed to keep their economy on a growth trajectory. After a slight decline in Russian GDP in 2022, the past few years have seen an increase of over three percent. And they have achieved this while maintaining an exceptionally low national debt—just fifteen percent last year. Despite the war, this is the lowest level in the past two decades. If that were not enough, Russia’s gold reserves have also soared to record highs in recent years, increasing by about 2,500 tonnes — while war expenses have consumed a vast amount of resources.

Among the sanctions, the halting of natural gas and oil shipments was considered the most powerful measure. In this, they were unfortunately right. Because the Russians acted swiftly. They increased exports to China and built new pipeline networks. Meanwhile, they routed fuel to Europe through Indian refineries and a shadow fleet—albeit at a significantly higher price. They did the same with liquefied natural gas. Meanwhile, the hypocritical Western politicians were simply waiting for Russia to collapse. Naturally, this did not happen.

The Russian economy is steaming ahead, supplying both the army and the hinterland. 

The army that's been continuously developed and strengthened since the outbreak of the war. Russia regularly deploys its latest weapons — partly fueled by business demonstration purposes. It's also significantly increased the size of its military, making Russia’s armed forces the second largest in the world, behind only China.

After the war broke out, the other wishful objective was to weaken and ultimately overthrow President Putin. From the British intelligence services to the American body language experts, we've seen plenty of reports and analyses, or rather: disinformation. Putin has Parkinson’s disease. But if not, then he must have cancer. Pancreatic, stomach, colorectal  — something, anything. But one thing is certain: he can only survive with Western medicine. In fact, he has already died, and they are using a body double in his place. Eventually, these so-called intelligence-based disinformation campaigns fizzled out. They became tedious, and reality painted a completely different picture of President Putin.

Two years ago, the rebellion of the Wagner Group’s leader briefly reignited hopes in the Western dreamers’ capm. Perhaps Prigozhin would accomplish what Western policy had failed to achieve. Yet the swift, composed, and confident handling of the mercenary leader’s mutiny—followed by the elimination of the entire leadership—cooled those expectations. There was no internal uprising, no military coup. The Russian president’s position and the country’s internal stability remained unshaken.

Now, taking over the role of the failed U.S. Democratic leadership, Western European politicians are trying to portray themselves as wartime heroes. Meanwhile, they seek to discredit the Hungarian government and Prime Minister Viktor Orban as enemies of Ukraine and democracy—simply because he's advocated for peace. Consistently, over the past three years.

And now Donald Trump has joined this cause. Fortunately for all of us. Because it has now become abundantly clear that this strategy will not defeat Russia. On the contrary, Moscow may feel more secure today than at any time in the past three years. The new American leadership recognizes Russia as a negotiating partner. In fact, Moscow may even serve as a balancing force between China and the United States, making Russia - once again - a global power player, one that can make significant gestures in reshaping the world order and ensure that its strategic security, economic, and political interests are taken into account.

One may love or hate the Russians, but this is the new geopolitical reality. Only Western Europe still refuses to acknowledge and accept it. Yet it is also clear that the pro-war policy has failed. Economic recession, political instability, and accelerating decline now characterize the European Union. If they fail to change course, then it will be Europe that is forced to its knees.

The author is the director of the Hungarian Sovereignty Protection Office