Olaf Scholz Cannot Admit He Was Wrong

With its own interests in mind, Berlin has not given up on the migrant quota scheme, but it would replace mass migration with a new kind of managed migration, Zoltan Kiszelly, Szazadveg's director of analysis told our newspaper.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) at a meeting with migrants and the affected locals in SV Babelsberg, Potsdam, on February 26, 2024 (Photo: DPA Picture-Alliance/AFP/Florian Gaertner)

"We will make immigration possible for talented workers we need in Germany to enable our economy to grow," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated recently.

More skilled workers and less irregular migration: That's what the new Kenya-Germany migration agreement is about, said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a joint press conference with Kenyan President William Ruto on Friday. pic.twitter.com/0L44yci1L6

— DW Politics (@dw_politics) September 13, 2024

On Sunday, Mr. Scholz visited Uzbekistan, where he signed a bilateral migration agreement aimed at attracting skilled Uzbek workers, especially health professionals, to Germany and facilitating the repatriation of Uzbeks in Germany without valid residence permits. As Magyar Nemzet reported earlier, the German Chancellor signed a similar agreement with Kenya  last week, through which Germany expects the arrival of around 250,000 immigrants to help ease a severe labor shortage.

Zoltan Kiszelly (Source: Szazadveg)

The Germans hoped to solve the problems of an aging society and a shortage of skilled workers through immigration. This looked good on paper, with studies from the 2010s suggesting that those allowed in should be given a clear path: they would learn the language, train for niche professions, and become useful members of German society in return for security, a decent salary, and German citizenship,

– Zoltan Kiszelly, Director of Analysis at the Szazadveg think tank, told our newspaper.

But the idea didn’t work.

Germany was unable to provide enough incentives to support the plan. Those who came have little motivation to work, as they immediately receive housing and social assistance from the German state. Of the roughly two and a half million people who have arrived, only around sixty percent are employed, and most are in low value-added jobs.

So the basic situation is that mass migration has not worked out, and what we are seeing now is Germans slowly recoiling and gravitating toward Anglo-Saxon-style managed migration," 

– the expert pointed out. Mr. Kiszelly emphasized that, in the meantime, Europe has been destroyed. The Australian and Canadian models, he noted, reward higher skills: the more knowledge or qualifications an applicant has, the more points they receive, increasing their chances of being accepted.

Currently, 300,000 so-called 'baby boomers' retire each year in Germany, and there is no one to replace them in critical shortage areas. Berlin is seeking a solution by turning to countries like Kenya and Uzbekistan, where there’s still a large enough wage gap. In Kenya, for instance, nurses and healthcare staff are being trained, with language courses provided to facilitate their move to Germany,

 – the expert explained.

Berlin continues to push for a mandatory quota

This, however, does not mean that Germany will give up on the migrant quota scheme, as Europe's population is shrinking by about a million people per year and cannot be replenished from within. Indeed, the alternative to ending Schengen is a permanent quota system, the expert said, adding:

On the one hand, the introduction of compulsory German border controls could be seen as a domestic political gesture in the run-up to the elections, but on the other hand, the distribution quota could be an alternative to internal border controls. The Germans want a permanent quota, which would lead to the death of Schengen.

Guarding the EU's external borders is not enough, Mr. Kiszelly explained. As the Germans will send the migrants back to the so-called frontline and transit countries, it will be these countries that will eventually demand the quota.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (center) shakes hands with asylum-seekers as she visits a branch of the Federal Office for Migration and Asylum and an asylum camp in Berlin on September 10, 2015 (Photo: AFP/Bernd von Jutrcze

This is an entirely consistent approach. The Germans have a plan, which may or may not succeed. When former Chancellor Angela Merkel let in the migrants, she hoped to push through a quota, but she failed. However, the Germans have not given up on the idea of an annual quota, which they call 'fair distribution.' There used to be 300,000 migrants arriving in Germany every year, but now there are fewer, with a growing number of so-called Dublin — or internal — refugees arriving in Germany from other EU states.

Olaf Scholz is currently trying to strengthen the Social Democrats and form a coalition with the much stronger Christian Democrats after next year's elections, the expert said. This would keep parties seen as extremist on the sidelines, buy time in terms of the Ukraine war, and help the economy recover.

Cover photo: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) at a meeting with migrants and the affected locals in SV Babelsberg, Potsdam, on February 26, 2024 (Photo: DPA Picture-Alliance/AFP/Florian Gaertner)