Ukraine’s Airstrike Carries Global Risks

The unprecedented drone operation was orchestrated by the Ukrainian Security Service, but details raise the possibility of Western involvement. By targeting part of Russia’s strategic air force, Ukraine has issued a threat of such magnitude that Moscow will almost certainly retaliate, security policy expert Balint Somkuti warns.

Ukraine Was Not Acting Alone

The operation didn’t involve any tools that Ukraine doesn’t already possess,

– Somkuti told our newspaper. Still, he highlighted several areas where Western participation is likely.

One such area is the selection of targets and the timing of the strike—specifically, determining when the largest number of aircraft would be present. That’s something the Ukrainians could scarcely have known from their own sources, or at the very least, the likelihood is slim,

he said. Mr. Somkuti also emphasized the critical importance of financial backing. Carrying out an operation of this magnitude requires not just technological capacity but substantial funding. As he put it, “Even if not through direct Western aid, the involvement of connections or even financial contributions cannot be ruled out.”

The Attack Creates a Strategic Risk

A focal point of the attack was the destruction of Russian strategic bombers, some capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This shifts the action into a new light, not only militarily, but also from a political viewpoint.

There are two types of nuclear weapons — something many forget when discussing the deployment of these weapons,

– the expert pointed out. Strategic weapons are intended for use against cities and industrial centers, whereas tactical weapons target specific military objectives. Mr. Somkuti considers the use of strategic nuclear weapons highly unlikely, and believes that the conditions for deploying tactical ones have not yet been met: Russian forces are advancing, albeit slowly, and no Russian territory is under threat to the extent that would warrant such an extreme measure.

Still, the strike reportedly damaged aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons—aircraft that, under the New START treaty, are stored in open areas to facilitate monitoring.

It should be noted that we don’t know the exact capabilities of the damaged aircraft,

– Mr. Somkuti added, emphasizing that Russian negligence may have played a role in the success of the attack.

Polish Bases Unlikely to Be Targets

In recent weeks, considerable attention has focused on reports that F-16 fighter jets transferred to Ukraine may be stationed at bases in Poland. This has raised concerns that Russia could retaliate by striking those bases. Mr. Somkuti, however, considers a direct attack on a NATO member highly unlikely:

A military strike on a NATO member — regardless of the pretext — would trigger Article 5, thereby dragging the Russian Federation into war with NATO, which it has so far made every effort to avoid

Instead, he believes Russia’s response will likely remain within Ukrainian territory, potentially targeting sites previously spared:

I would point to Kyiv and its government facilities, as well as other structures that have not been targeted so far either for reasons of military efficiency or, let’s say, long-term strategic considerations. One example of that is the bridges spanning the Dnipro River,

More footage from the site, reportedly near/at Olenya Air Base. It is claimed that 10 explosions were heard prior to a fire breaking out. https://t.co/iOdw6oGou6 pic.twitter.com/zW6dgMImTK

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 1, 2025

The West Is Now Leading, Not Restraining, Kyiv

According to Mr. Somkuti, the further escalation of the war may not stem solely from Ukrainian initiative—it may reflect Western intentions as well. Although reports claim that U.S. leadership was unaware of the strike, that doesn’t mean the West is distancing itself from such operations.

Western public opinion is irrelevant to Western decision-makers. […] The West acts according to the will of its leadership, and that leadership is clearly preparing for war against Russia.

Whatever form Russia’s response may take, Mr. Somkuti believes the Western media will swiftly absorb it into its existing narrative: “another barbaric Russian attack.” However, he argues that some recent acts, such as the bridge bombings in the Bryansk and Kursk regions, are far more serious provocations:

One of these attacks caused a passenger train to derail, resulting in dozens of deaths and between 100 and 120 serious injuries. That is the kind of event more likely to provoke retaliation from the Russian leadership.

Cover photo: Ukraine’s drone strike destroyed strategic bombers (Source: Facebook)