The latest survey by the Hungarian Social Research Institute (Magyar Tarsadalomkutato) found that the Fidesz–KDNP alliance has a solid lead (eight percent) over the Tisza Party among active party voters. The survey also shows that no other party would make it into parliament apart from the two most popular parties if elections were held on the first Sunday in July 2025.
Six months after its last party preference report, the Hungarian Social Research Institute conducted another survey in early July 2025 to assess how political parties would perform in a hypothetical immediate election. Support for Fidesz appears stable as of the first weekend of July 2025, with no significant shift from the results measured at the end of 2024.
In the week following the Pride event, 49 percent of active party voters would cast their ballot for Fidesz, while 41 percent would vote for the Tisza Party.
In addition to Fidesz’s unchanged lead, the most notable finding from the survey is that only two parties would surpass the 5 percent threshold required to enter Parliament in an immediate election. Before the 2022 elections, the Hungarian Social Research Institute was the only pollster to correctly predict that the Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazank) would enter parliament. However, the latest data shows that they would now only receive 3 percent, meaning they would not be able to form a parliamentary group in a newly elected assembly. Since the last survey, the Tisza Party has gained 7 percentage points, primarily at the expense of the other opposition parties.
