Attila Demko: Attack on Belgorod may have been a distraction

Although the Ukrainian counter-offensive promised for the spring has not yet been launched, there are some signs indicating that it is being prepared, said security policy expert Attila Demko, head of the Center for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus Collegium. The expert drew attention to the increased Ukrainian deep penetration attacks on the Russian logistics network. Ukraine surrendering territory remains unlikely, while a frozen conflict is a growing possibility, with security guarantees and the promise of a possible faster EU accession becoming probable.

Bahmut, 2023. május 15. Ukrán katonák önjáró tüzérségi járművel lőnek az orosz erők által ostromlott kelet-ukrajnai Bahmutban 2023. május 15-én. MTI/AP/LIBKOS Fotó: LIBKOS

“The Ukrainians appear to be postponing their counter-attack promised for mid-May. We have not seen any large scale Ukrainian offensive, and the incursion by a couple of hundred people into a few villages in the Belgorod region cannot be considered a large-scale offensive,” said security expert Attila Demko, head of the Center for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC).

As we also reported earlier, a Ukrainian-backed Russian armed subversive and reconnaissance group has penetrated the Belgorod region in Russia. Although Kyiv has indicated that the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Liberty of Russia Legion were responsible for the incursion, Attila Demko did not rule out that that the raids took place with Ukrainian assistance and cooperation.

They were supported by Ukrainian artillery, they came from and retreated to Ukrainian territory. So this could not have been done without Kiev

− he said. There have been other instances when Ukrainian or Russian saboteur groups have crossed the Russia-Ukraine border.

In his view, the attack on Belgorod is significant from a communication aspect, as the Ukrainians very cleverly timed it to coincide with the Ukrainian defeat in Bakhmut, thus distracting the Ukrainian media and public from the failure. “This carries no great military significance, as the occupation of a large Russian city like Belgorod, with a population of 300 thousand, would require a much larger force, which would probably prompt general mobilisation by Moscow and it’s unlikely that Kiev would want that,” he added.

There are minor Ukrainian success like preventing being surrounded in Bahmut, retaking strategically important high points or building bridgeheads in the Russian-occupied area around the Dneper river, but none of these can be called a major counter-offensive. The security policy advisor said. There are, however, signs of preparation.

The Ukrainians carry out many more deep strikes against the Russian logistics system than before. These strikes targeted ammunition depots, railway and other bridges and hubs. Attacking them may ensure that the Russia defenders could not receive enough supplies or rapidly redeploy their forces

− the professor of the MCC said.

The three small attacks (Belgorod, Bahmut, Dnieper) may have been intended to draw Russian forces away from areas important for counter-attacks, but they could have been carried out out of local necessity or for communication purposes, Mr Demko said.

One should focus on the concentration of logistical strikes. We saw this in the Herson offensive, when the Ukrainians spent months firing on bridges to cut off Russian supplies, preparing the ground. In that sense, the preparatory phase of the counter-offensive has begun, but the time and the place of a major offensive, and also its scale and success, is anyone's guess

− Attila Demko explained.

Polish conservative politician Mariusz Dzierzawski has argued in a Polish weekly that Ukraine could give up some territories in return for peace, following Finland’s example, which did the same in 1939 and 1944. Mr Demko responded to the argument by saying that the “Ukrainian public does not want that and Kiev is not force by anyone to do that. Moreover, in contrast to the examples from the 20th century, the recent Russian conquests are recognised by no one, not even by Russia’s closest allies.” He added:

The question will be much more topical in 5 or 10 years’ time, as the conflict may freeze and become a slower-burning war of attrition, which may drag on for a very long time

Talking about the scenarios for resolving the conflict, such as the examples of Korea, Israel, or the Western-backed Ukraine, Attila Demko ruled out the Israeli example, stressing that Israel is a nuclear power and a stronger military power than its strongest neighbour. Ukraine, however, will never be stronger militarily than Russia. The situation in Korea is also different, as the country was split into North and South Korea, while Russia has annexed Ukrainian territories, he said.

The closest parallel may be Cyprus, whose northern part is not recognised by the international community, while the southern part, the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union. Turkey is not considering occupying it, but still, it is an unresolved conflict, the expert explained.

In the case of Ukraine, there could be a scenario where no one recognises the Russian conquests, the conflict freezes and Kiev gets a shortcut to the EU in return, with security guarantees and weapons, making it much more difficult for the Russians to continue the war, Attila Demko said about a possible outcome.

Cover: Ukrainian soldiers fire a self-propelled artillery vehicle at Bahmut, besieged by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, May 15, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/LIBKOS)