Attila Demko: Attack on Belgorod may have been a distraction

Although the Ukrainian counter-offensive promised for the spring has not yet been launched, there are some signs indicating that it is being prepared, said security policy expert Attila Demko, head of the Center for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus Collegium. The expert drew attention to the increased Ukrainian deep penetration attacks on the Russian logistics network. Ukraine surrendering territory remains unlikely, while a frozen conflict is a growing possibility, with security guarantees and the promise of a possible faster EU accession becoming probable.

Bahmut, 2023. május 15. Ukrán katonák önjáró tüzérségi járművel lőnek az orosz erők által ostromlott kelet-ukrajnai Bahmutban 2023. május 15-én. MTI/AP/LIBKOS Fotó: LIBKOS

The three small attacks (Belgorod, Bahmut, Dnieper) may have been intended to draw Russian forces away from areas important for counter-attacks, but they could have been carried out out of local necessity or for communication purposes, Mr Demko said.

One should focus on the concentration of logistical strikes. We saw this in the Herson offensive, when the Ukrainians spent months firing on bridges to cut off Russian supplies, preparing the ground. In that sense, the preparatory phase of the counter-offensive has begun, but the time and the place of a major offensive, and also its scale and success, is anyone's guess

− Attila Demko explained.

Polish conservative politician Mariusz Dzierzawski has argued in a Polish weekly that Ukraine could give up some territories in return for peace, following Finland’s example, which did the same in 1939 and 1944. Mr Demko responded to the argument by saying that the “Ukrainian public does not want that and Kiev is not force by anyone to do that. Moreover, in contrast to the examples from the 20th century, the recent Russian conquests are recognised by no one, not even by Russia’s closest allies.” He added:

The question will be much more topical in 5 or 10 years’ time, as the conflict may freeze and become a slower-burning war of attrition, which may drag on for a very long time

Talking about the scenarios for resolving the conflict, such as the examples of Korea, Israel, or the Western-backed Ukraine, Attila Demko ruled out the Israeli example, stressing that Israel is a nuclear power and a stronger military power than its strongest neighbour. Ukraine, however, will never be stronger militarily than Russia. The situation in Korea is also different, as the country was split into North and South Korea, while Russia has annexed Ukrainian territories, he said.

The closest parallel may be Cyprus, whose northern part is not recognised by the international community, while the southern part, the Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union. Turkey is not considering occupying it, but still, it is an unresolved conflict, the expert explained.

In the case of Ukraine, there could be a scenario where no one recognises the Russian conquests, the conflict freezes and Kiev gets a shortcut to the EU in return, with security guarantees and weapons, making it much more difficult for the Russians to continue the war, Attila Demko said about a possible outcome.

Cover: Ukrainian soldiers fire a self-propelled artillery vehicle at Bahmut, besieged by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, May 15, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/LIBKOS)