"Russia is the last European empire”

For Europe and the EU, it's key to have a good relationship with other cultural regions and states that are surrounding the continent, and Hungary is at the forefront of making an outreach, Eric Hendriks told Magyar Nemzet in an interview. The Danube Institute's visiting researcher was asked about the world order that is changing before our eyes at the 3rd Danube Geopolitical Summit, organized by the Danube Institute.

20230922 Budapest Eric Hendriks Fotó: Mirkó István Magyar Nemzet Fotó: Mirkó István

In recent weeks, several events have occurred that show the growing strength of the East and the global South.  Can we say that we are living in an emerging multipolar world order?

I do think we can say that we are living in an emerging multipolar world order. However, among the great powers, there are two powers that truly stand out. China and the United States. And this is also what Prime Minister Viktor Orban referred to in his speech in Baile Tusnad when he said that there are two suns in the sky. In the Western world, the United States remains fairly hegemonic, culturally and politically influential as well as economically powerful. 

However, if we look at the world more broadly, we see that Western influence has been declining and that there are a number of new centers rising that seem to be gaining gravity and weight.

This is primarily true economically, but perhaps also increasingly in political, cultural and intellectual terms. China has become the largest industrial exporter in world history, with an enormous capacity for industrial production, but this doesn't carry so much political and cultural influence outside of its borders. But the situation might be changing and we are, it seems, in a period of transition. 
 You haven't mentioned Europe in this formula. Our continent is clearly lagging behind in terms of change. What can we do to gain the most benefits?

 The fact that the EU is in geopolitical terms probably less important than both the United States and China might have advantages and disadvantages. Europe is not playing in the same league as the two other actors, which also means that it is not, in principle, getting dragged into the worst of geopolitical competition. So this also opens up some opportunities for European countries to stay close to the United States in many ways, while building and maintaining fairly constructive relations with China. And this will potentially bring a crucial benefit for the well-being of Europeans.  

Hungary is a tiny piece in the global geopolitical jigsaw, but in recent years it has built the most extensive links with the countries in the Eastern world. How can Hungary contribute to the strengthening of Europe in this respect?

So for Europe and the EU, it's very important to have a good relationship with other cultural regions and states that are surrounding Europe, and Hungary is at the forefront of making an outreach. For example, with Turkey and the Turkic states. So I think combining the benefits of a strong Western alliance with an open minded approach to a world that has many different cultural regions is the right approach. The best position for a small country is to be in a strong alliance on the one hand, and to reach out to other players outside on the other.

And this shouldn't lead to conflicts if political loyalty is separated from economic opportunities and all kinds of other cultural, intellectual and scientific relations,

There is so much we can learn from other people in the world whether it's science, technology, business or other fields without having to share a close economic and political union as we do in the European Union. The EU must accept this, and must not limit smaller countries in building relations outside Europe, as this is precisely what is needed in the 21st century.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (r) meets Turkish President  Recep Tayyip Erdogan at te Carmelite monastery on August 20, 2023  (Photo: MTI/PM's Press Office/Vivien Cher Benko)

Going back to China: Beijing's position is that it does not want to take over Washington's hegemonic role. Do you see any chance of this changing if there were a real opportunity for the Asian power to do so?

China is already the largest industrial producer on Earth, so in that regard, it is already number one. However, I don't think it is viable that China will take up a position that the US had in the '90s or just after World War II. I don't think there's any way for China within the foreseeable future to attain such an all-around leading position, which is a combination of political, cultural, economic, and scientific hegemony. Instead, what we can see is that the two major powers, China and the United States, have very different assets, and very different strengths. Although China is now the largest industrial exporter, it's still American media, American narratives that are influential on the world stage. Even in countries neighboring China, very few people draw on Chinese media output, Chinese cultural products or Chinese narratives. An excellent example is South Korea, which is very much dependent on China economically, yet you'll see that young people - just think of K-pop - will use English words to sound cool.  This kind of coolness that America still retains continues to overpower  Chinese cultural influence. So what we can see is an asymmetry of power types. 

The US and China are the two largest geopolitical powers, but their power has a very different basis.

In the future, it is unlikely for a single world power to become the all-around leader the way America used to be. At least, I think this is a situation that will not return during our lifetime. 
 

At the same time, Washington is fighting tooth and nail against the rise of China. Could this change in the future?

From this point of view, it is more important for the US and the West to develop a consistent China strategy, as this has been far from clear in recent years. Take Donald Trump's trade war as an example. The former US president began imposing sanctions on China, but Beijing was never told what it would need to do in order to have those sanctions lifted. China had no constructive way of responding. It seems very much that Washington merely feels threatened by China's industrial and technological development without a truly sustainable strategy for the future. Cutting off China from certain key technologies is just buying a bit of time, because China will be able to develop those technologies in the end. However,

 America holds many cards to preserve its leading position in many areas in the future, but has not used these cards effectively so far.

Eric Hendriks (Photo: Istvan Mirko)

One actor that has not yet been mentioned is Russia, which played a significant role in accelerating the change in the world order through its aggression in Ukraine.

As a Western European, I seem to recognize a part of my country's history in the present condition of Russia.

Russia is the last European empire that has to face up to the fact that it doesn't have the prestige and economic base to remain an empire on the global stage. 

This is a lesson that the Netherlands, my home country, had to learn in the 1940s when we had to give up our last colony in today's Indonesia. This is a lesson that France, Britain and Germany had to learn. The GDP of the Russian Federation is the size of the GDP of Netherlands and Belgium combined. That's not a sufficient economic base to uphold an empire that stretches from Eastern Europe to the coast of Japan. Russia has also lost much of its cultural prestige. Consequently, it must give up part of its sphere of influence.

This entire conflict that we have in Ukraine right now is part of a larger saga about Russia retreating from parts that used to belong to its core sphere of influence, but which it can no longer maintain legitimately and effectively.

 It's very important to manage this retreat as much in a peaceful way as possible. But of course  there is already a war in the Eastern Ukraine, and that's tragic. It will be a long standing challenge to make sure that Russia lives up to the processes and facts that are shaping our world. These should push Moscow in the direction taken by Western European powers in the 1940s. It doesn't mean that the Russian Federation is going to collapse, but it does mean it has to become much more realistic and modest about where and how it seeks to extend its influence.

Cover poto: Eric Hendriks (Photo: Istvan Mirko)