Hungary Showed the Path to Peace

Hungary’s most significant contribution to a future peace that would end the Russia-Ukraine war was daring to put a Plan B on the table, where only Plan A+ versions could be discussed until now. Speaking to Magyar Nemzet, Robert C. Castel, the new security policy advisor at the Budapest-based Center for Fundamental Rights also discussed the potential outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the current stage of the war in the Middle East.

Robert C. Castel, Security Policy Advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights Photo: Yoav Nir (c)

– You joined the Centre for Fundamental Rights as an expert. What are your objectives?

– I'll answer this question with another: why did I get into the security policy analysis business in the first place? Because I felt that through it, I could influence processes that I consider important, perhaps vital. As a lone wolf, I achieved all I could on my own over the past two years. Two books - published in multiple editions - a third in preparation, and countless articles, interviews, podcasts, and other media appearances. However, it became clear to me that I had reached a "glass ceiling" that I could no longer break as a lone wolf. And, as a lone wolf, this is the moment when you join the pack. What attracted me most to the Centre for Fundamental Rights is that they are not engaged in sterile academic navel-gazing. For me, knowledge is only valuable if it's a form of action.

Robert C. Castel, Security Policy Advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights (Photo: Center for Fundamental Rights)

– In Israel, voices calling for the release of the hostages have amplified once again. What dilemma does the Israeli government face in this regard?

– The dilemma, or rather "trilemma," that we are impaled upon is not new. This tension already existed between the prophet Samuel and King Saul. The prophet can afford to take the pure moral stance. The king, standing on Machiavelli's shoulders and trying to look toward the future, cannot afford that luxury. To use a Talleyrandian turn: for the former, the only red line is sin, for the latter, it's making a mistake. And small nations cannot afford to make big mistakes. The king has no civil rights, nor even basic human rights. He cannot afford to be heartbroken, even when ordinary men would be shattered by the sight of tragedy. He must make cold and calculated decisions, and in this multivariate equation, the hostages must have a voice, but no veto. There are many other interests at play, and when the ship’s fate is at stake, a clever merchant will throw even his most valuable goods overboard to save the vessel. He who cannot bear this burden, and cannot renounce the human right to love, should not be king. When it comes to prophets, admission is always open.

In Israel, many are calling for a ceasefire (Photo: Anadolu via AFP)

– At what stage is the war in the Gaza Strip and how much longer can it last?

– The current phase of the war centers on the first objective: the elimination of the military threat posed by Hamas. This phase is nearing its end. Eliminating the military threat means depriving Hamas of the capability to launch a second massacre similar to October 7th, using organized military units. However, this does not mean that the threat of terror will cease. The survivors of the dismantled Hamas battalions will continue to wage guerrilla and terror warfare against Israel for many years, as they did from 1948 to 2007.

– To what extent does the regime of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appear to be cracking?

– This question encompasses at least three distinct issues: the Zelensky administration, the Ukrainian resistance, and the existence of the Ukrainian state. There are several signs that the vitality sustaining this administration is gradually weakening. The first sign is the diminishing media attention from the West. The second is the loss of formal legitimacy observed in May of this year. The third sign is the increasingly desperate attempts to create "black swan events" on the battlefield, which the Ukrainian leadership hopes will alter the dynamics of the war or at least buy time. 

If current trends continue and no significant counter-trends emerge, Ukraine may have to sacrifice the current administration, and possibly its war resistance, in order to preserve the state.

One by one, Zelensky's people are leaving government (Photo: NurPhoto via AFP)

– Instead of stopping, the Russian offensive in Donbass has intensified after the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, and the Russians are now very close to the key city of Pokrovsk. Has Zelensky got himself ensnared in a trap?

– Such missteps can be likened to forced errors in tennis and strategy. When Russia imposes a war of attrition on Ukraine, which it cannot win and in which all projections suggest Ukraine's defeat in the medium to long term, the Ukrainians are forced to create "black swans." One such black swan was the landing at Krynky, surrounded by expectations similar to those for the current Kursk invasion. Liddell Hart's strategy of an "indirect approach," which involves distracting Russian attention, is fundamentally sound. However, for it to succeed, it should have threatened vital Russian interests in Kursk. Instead, this strategy has only led to Russia engaging high-value Ukrainian combat troops with relatively low-value Russian troops.

– In recent weeks, Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and the country's energy network have markedly intensified. So, what lies ahead for ordinary Ukrainians in the coming months?

– Everything hinges on whether Russia has the will and capability to replicate the Syrian scenario in Ukraine. In Syria, the Russian air force targeted rebel-held towns and cities, creating a refugee crisis that reached as far as Ireland.

I believe Russia has the capability to make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable by destroying critical infrastructure as winter approaches and to use the resulting wave of refugees as a strategic weapon. The evacuation of one and a half million people from Rafah demonstrated that what many trusted Western experts deemed impossible could be accomplished in a matter of days.

The key question is whether Russia intends to apply the same tactics to its neighboring nation as it did to a population of different ethnicity and religion on another continent.

The Russia-Ukraine war is causing immense devastation (Photo: NurPhoto via AFP)

– Although many have vehemently criticized Prime Minister Orban's peace mission, it seems that an increasing number of Western politicians are now acknowledging the need for prompt peace negotiations in Ukraine. When might pro-peace voices reach a critical mass, and what role could Hungary play in this?

– Being pro-peace is not a fissile material that can be precisely quantified to determine its critical mass. However, if we accept that political success justifies all actions, we must also accept that tangible failure signifies the end of political legitimacy. One of the great advantages of war is that, unlike other areas, military failure cannot be "explained away." A GDP or unemployment statistic can be manipulated, but a Russian armored division on the Dnieper, from any perspective, looks exactly like a Russian armored division on the Dnieper.

The Western resources wasted on the war can be somewhat justified, but the increasing suffering of the Ukrainian population will become harder and harder to explain. By escalating human suffering, Russia will turn the progressive West’s most important moral value—protecting the vulnerable—against the West itself. It is only a matter of time before we recognize that we are unable to protect the Ukrainians from this suffering and that our current policy merely prolongs it.

Hungary's most significant contribution was daring to put a Plan B on the table, where only Plan A+ versions could be discussed until now. In any rational alliance, pluralism of opinions must prevail.

Each state should act as an independent laboratory for geopolitical thinking, producing ideas that compete freely in the marketplace of ideas.

But instead, what have we seen over the past two and a half years? A Chaplin-esque machine with an assembly line and a force-feeder. This dynamic has been disrupted by Hungary's peace initiative.

Cover photo: Robert C. Castel, Security Policy Advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights (Photo: Arpad Foldhazi)