Growing Migrant Influx Carries Potential Terrorists

The most lucrative business within organized crime, namely people smuggling, specifically along the Balkan route, has been entirely hijacked by increasingly radicalized Afghan groups controlled by the Taliban government. According to a recently published national security report, the substantial proceeds could potentially be used to finance terrorist networks, and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, coupled with mounting migratory pressures, further heightens the risk of terrorism.

Migránsok Horgos központjában (Fotó: MTI/Molnár Edvárd)

One key point of the recently published national security report, which also explores the links between illegal migration and terrorism, is that the Taliban intelligence service has taken direct control of the Afghan people-smuggling groups operating in Vojvodina. At the same time, however, the intense rivalry and a so-called "willingness to use violence" have also grown among these groups. The individuals who emerge in these increasingly radical gangs are in fact relatives of members of Afghanistan's Taliban government and the Haqqani Network, a militant organization allied with the Taliban and registered as a terrorist group.

As the national security report points out, the emergence of a criminal network with ruthless and openly violent members is a particular risk in this situation. These groups have brought with them from home an attitude that there is glory in attacking and defeating the enemy soldier.

According to the report, the armed clashes in Vojvodina are the result of a turf war between two Afghan groups, namely 313 and 40-059, with both operating as human smuggling networks. 

In terms of group 40-059, the document mentions that they no longer recruit their clients on TikTok, and that the style of the group's videos resemble the clips previously released by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. These videos tend to showcase their own fighting skills and strengths.

Recently, for the first time, these groups turned their weapons against Serbian police. Their so-called inclination to resort to violence has now extended to the border, with people smugglers and traffickers targeting Hungarian border guards.

"The fact that the Taliban have taken control of people smuggling activities from not just a financing, but also from an operational and organization aspect - especially along the Serbia-Hungary border - is cause for concern. Their objective  is to eradicate internal disputes between groups with Afghan backgrounds and gain full control over the transfer of financial resources. This would enable the Taliban government to use the substantial profits of the people-smuggling business as its own revenue, potentially funding terrorism. The proceeds can also be used to bribe local authorities and to finance local arms procurement deals," reads the national security briefing.

The report devotes a whole section to Tajikistan's relations with Afghanistan and these two countries' geopolitical situation. There is a risk that Tajiks living in large numbers in Afghanistan could easily obtain a Tajik passport by exploiting their cross-border connections. This is important because they can now travel within the Commonwealth of Independent States without requiring a special permit. In just a day or two, they can reach Belgrade through Moscow without any significant risks. Consequently, members of extremist organizations such as the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, or other Taliban groups can potentially infiltrate the EU without being detected.

A security risk similar to the Tajik situation is that the growing number of refugees from Turkey could be joined by various Turkic extremists - Turks, Kurdish elements or people from Azerbaijan, Dagestan and other Caucasian areas - who could exploit the facilitated entry between Serbia-Turkey to reach Hungary's southern border region, from where they would try to continue their journeys - via Hungary - to other EU member states.

The report also reveals new information indicating that some Middle East terrorist organizations have also formed a claim to assert control over the entire people smuggling network in the Balkans. 

Naturally, the armed conflict and war between Hamas and Israel further increases the risk of terrorism. 

The war between Israel and Hamas erupted on October 7 after a massacre carried out by Hamas, in which some 2 500 terrorists crossed the border from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The militants killed 1400 people and took 230 individuals of various ages hostage. Hamas militants fired thousands of rockets into Israeli towns and executed entire families in their homes. In response, Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas.

A declaration issued by Hamas's leader on October 10 calling for further terrorist acts was joined by the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda, and there is a growing body of information suggesting terrorist attacks on or against European targets. - "The risk is proportional to the size of the Arab, Palestinian diaspora," the security report says.

The war has been accompanied by pro-Palestinian protests around the globe. In Europe's major cities - London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Copenhagen, Stockholm - crowds of thousands and sometimes tens of thousands are gathering. According to the New York Post, "despite headlines of pro-Palestinian protests on university campuses, in cities around the world and on Arab streets, there has not been a single demonstration that has been genuinely pro-Palestinian." They are said to be "all anti-Israel, pro-Hamas, pro-terror and often anti-Semitic."

According to a piece published by Politico, Europe is facing a new wave of Islamist terror. The portal suggests that the biggest threat could be posed by "lone wolves", potential perpetrators who have been radicalized by the teachings of Islamist preachers in online courses and are capable of carrying out surprise attacks on civilian targets. - Intelligence agencies are in a difficult position to prevent this, as most jihadists deliberately show no signs of radicalization and remain under the radar, hidden from intelligence. However, they can strike anywhere and at any time against the most vulnerable targets," Politico says.

In conclusion, the growing migratory pressure and the arrival of radical Islamist groups - whose members are already residents of Europe, although they have entered the continent illegally - means an increased threat of terrorism. The fact that Afghanistan's Taliban - who have active terrorist links - have assumed control over the Balkans migration route and the organization of people smuggling activities further increases this risk. The gravity of the situation is heightened by a growing number of intelligence reports suggesting potential terrorist attacks on European targets resulting from the Israel-Hamas war.

Cover photo: Migrants in downtown Horgos (Photo: MTI/Edvard Molnar)