Fidesz Set for EU Frenzy Following EP Elections

The Batthyany Lajos Foundation, in collaboration with the Prokon Youth Organization and Political Science College, convened a roundtable discussion titled "European Panorama." The event featured notable participants including Gabor Horn, chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Republikon Foundation, Mraz Agoston Samuel, the head of the Nezopont Institute, Istvan Kovacs, strategic director of the Budapest-based Center for Fundamental Rights, and Andras Pulai, the director of Publicus Research. Together, they delved into the stakes and circumstances surrounding the European Parliament elections.

Brüsszel, 2023. március 21. Az Európai Parlament brüsszeli épülete 2023. március 21-én. MTI/Balogh Zoltán Fotó: Balogh Zoltán

Europe is in an elevated protest mood at present, but it would be inaccurate to assume that this sentiment will automatically translate into votes or increased turnout, and subsequently lead to a shift in the balance of power," Mraz Agoston Samuel pointed out. According to models constructed across Europe, there's an expected strengthening of the right while the left is anticipated to weaken, the head of the Nezopont Institute pointed out. He also underscored that the establishment of a new European mainstream, along with new European leadership, necessitates a majority. There are tensions in society, he opined, adding that Europe's political system is unable to channel these.

One key question for the upcoming EP elections is how big the conservative party will grow. If, for instance with the entry of Fidesz, this European conservative alliance were to grow into a party of around 15-16 percent, 

it would become the second, or at least the third largest force, somehow inevitably making it part of the mainstream,

– Mraz Agoston Samuel explained. He added that no one should expect the winner of the election to be able to decide European issues on its own, as is the case in national politics.

The current downturn began during the 2008 financial crisis, and Europe still hasn't recovered from it, Istvan Kovacs said. Since then, two trends have emerged. The first is that the solution to new crises is that another crisis comes and the old one gets forgotten. The second is that the European elite is unable to resolve these crises, but it uses them to increase its own concentration of power," explained the strategic director of the Center for Fundamental Rights.
 

Andras Pulai agreed that the right wing will expand in the European Parliament. He said the Socialists will get almost the same result as last time, but the Greens and the Liberals will weaken. According to the director of Publicus Research, the question of how many seats the Conservatives will win is an important one.

If Fidesz wins 13 to 14 seats, this could trigger a "race" for Fidesz between the European Conservatives and Reformists and the Identity and Democracy groups, he said.

Andras Pulai anticipates that the current leading force in the European Parliament will maintain its position following the elections.

Gabor Horn emphasized that in European elections, it's typically the politically active and committed who cast their ballots, while undecided individuals often abstain from voting. The Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Republikon Foundation concurred with Mr. Pulai's suggestion that a "race" for Fidesz could ensue, but he does not foresee any significant breakthroughs.

Viktor Orban aims to forge a new right-wing bloc within the European Union, but the dynamics is "it's just like at the market:" after the election, everyone will check to see what percentage they have and then begin to organize, Samuel Agoston Mraz said. István Kovacs underscored that

gender, migration and the situation in Ukraine will be the focus of this year's EP elections.

These are the issues that will motivate people to go out and vote, rather than their party affiliation.

Cover photo: Illustration (Photo: MTI/Zoltan Balogh)