It Was a Mistake to Overlook the Importance of Nation-States

Germany faces several potential scenarios following its upcoming snap elections, each with its own challenges, said Hermann Binkert, managing director of the polling firm INSA-Consulere and former state secretary, in response to questions from Magyar Nemzet. Germans are divided on the European Union's federalist direction and on supporting Ukraine. However, if Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor, Germany's and Hungary's positions on the latter issue may drift even further apart.

Hermann Binkert, managing director of polling company INSA-Consulere (right), and Agoston Samuel Mraz, director of the Nezopont Institute, present this year’s German-Hungarian Barometer findings at an event organized by the Nezopont Institute and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (Photo: Nezopont Institute)

Germany is navigating a time of uncertainty. Two weeks ago, the so-called "traffic light coalition" dissolved, and snap elections are expected in February. Hermann Binkert - managing director of the polling company INSA-Consulere, and former state secretary - spoke to Magyar Nemzet about the situation and the potential outcomes. According to Mr. Binkert, disputes within the three-party coalition government, which had ruled for three years, were numerous, but the fundamental issue was that the parties (and their voter bases) were simply incompatible.

There were two left-wing parties, the SPD and the Greens, and a centrist liberal party, the FDP. These three didn’t fit together, and neither did their voters, particularly those of the FDP,

– Mr. Binkert explained. He added that it was crucial for the FDP to leave the coalition before the elections, since the party had lost nearly half of its voters since the last federal election. Remaining in the government would have likely led to the FDP's exclusion from parliament.

Regarding the future, Mr. Binkert suggested that Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition CDU, is the most likely candidate to become chancellor. However, the question remains with whom he will form a coalition. The most probable scenario is a coalition with the SPD. The alternative is a partnership with the Greens, but that would not be ideal. The most desirable coalition would be CDU–CSU–FDP, but mathematically, it won’t work," Mr. Binkert explained.

One in every five votes will go to the AfD, which will receive about 20 percent of the vote. Since no one wants to govern with them, the result is many votes that cannot be utilized. And this is the CDU’s main problem: they are popular among middle-class, liberal-conservative voters, but their available coalition partners force them to adopt center-left policies. If they return to government, they will clearly disappoint their base,

– the expert pointed out.

The CDU should have gained way more from the current coalition's unpopularity, but recently Germany’s political landscape has shifted, as ecidenced by the emergence of the AfD on the right and the BSW on the left. Both of these parties agree on certain key issues like Ukraine, rejecting migration, or opposing the gender ideology.

This is why the BSW calls itself left-wing conservative, while many in the AfD describe their party as socially conservative,

– Mr. Binkert stated.

He cited the recent vote on the self-determination law, which allows individuals to change their gender annually, as an example. The SPD, the Greens, the FDP and the Left Party all threw their weight behind the proposal, while the CDU/CSU alliance, the AfD and the BSW opposed it.

And now the CDU must form a coalition with one of the parties that passed this. So you realize that this can’t work,

– Mr. Binkert opined. 

Every election where the CDU refuses to engage with the AfD will strengthen the latter. In Thuringia, for instance, the AfD first appeared ten years ago and secured 10 percent. Five yeras ago it garnered over 20 percent, and during this year's state elections in September it received more than 30 percent of the votes, the state secretary underlined. 

And this growth in the right-wing party's popularity occurred despite higher voter turnout. Twenty years ago, the CDU secured 51 percent of the mandates by gaining the support of 22 percent of all eligible voters and 43 percent of the votes actually cast. In comparison, this September, the AfD reached 24 percent of all eligible voters, but due to the higher turnout, this amounted to only 31 percent of the votes cast and 36 percent of the mandates.

The rising voter turnout has a dual cause: first, there's a broader party landscape, and secondly, some voters were motivated to turn up at the polling booths to counterbalance the ballots cast for the new parties. In Thuringia, parties opposing traditional structures are now the majority. However, while the BSW is less hostile toward the AfD than others, they also remain unwilling to form a coalition with them.

The German–Hungarian Barometer, conducted by Hungary’s Nezopont Institute and Germany’s INSA-Consulere with the support of conducted the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, examines how the German and Hungarian publics view each other.  This year’s findings reveal that one of the most significant points of disagreement between the two countries lies in their differing visions of the European Union. According to Hermann Binkert, this issue is a source of division within Germany itself. While residents of the former West Germany tend to lean toward a federal “United States of Europe,” those in the East place greater importance on preserving the sovereignty of nation-states.

Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who oversaw the German reunification process, initially supported a federal vision but later recognized the mistake of sidelining nation-states, Mr. Binkert explained.

I think it would be crucial for Germany to foster a healthy sense of national identity again, otherwise the country will suffer,

– he stated, recalling Winston Churchill's remark about Germans: "They are either at your feet or at your throat."

Germany’s role as Europe’s strongest power is paradoxical, Mr. Binkert continued, citing former Chancellor Kurt Georg Kiesinger from the second half of the 60's, who famously said Germany is "too large to be integrated, but too weak to dominate," the expert explained.

Just as on the EU's role, Germany is also divided on its support for Ukraine, caught between the positions represented by Hungary's Viktor Orban and EC President Ursula von der Leyen. Although a pro-peace approach resonates with many in Western Germany, if Friedrich Merz becomes chancellor, Berlin’s position is likely to drift further from Budapest's, Mr. Binkert said.

Regarding the federal government's policies, Friedrich Merz becoming chancellor would likely increase their divergence from Hungary's perspectives, he added.

It's difficult to predict how Donald Trump’s presidency may affect German-U.S. relations, the expert noted. As he put it: “In Germany, we often say that developments in the United States tend to reach Europe, and Germany, with a certain time lag. And this is something some people fear, while others hope for."

The results of the German–Hungarian Barometer paint a rather bleak picture of the current state of relations between the two countries. According to Hermann Binkert, the data reflect public sentiment, but he argued that if German media coverage of Hungary were fairer, it would likely improve Germans’ attitudes as well.

The survey also made it clear that Germans have no issue with Hungarians themselves, 

– the former state secretary emphasized. According to the results, 43 percent of Germans - and 51 percent of East Germans in particular - reported having a positive opinion of Hungarians.

Cover photo: Hermann Binkert, managing director of polling company INSA-Consulere (right), and Agoston Samuel Mraz, director of the Nezopont Institute, present this year’s German-Hungarian Barometer findings at an event organized by the Nezopont Institute and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (Photo: Nezopont Institute)