Fidesz Would Win 61 Percent of Seats If Elections Were Held This Sunday

This Sunday, Fidesz would get 47 percent of the list votes and the Tisza Party 37 percent, which would lead to a three-party parliament based on Nezopont Institute's most likely list result estimate, according to the modeling done with the new constituencies. A repeat victory for Fidesz would not be in question: the ruling alliance of the Fidesz and the Christian Democrats would win a 61 percent majority in parliament.

Fidesz would win in 74 constituencies

Fidesz would win a total of 121 of the party list and individual seats. Source: Nezopont Institute

Based on the mandate estimate, Fidesz would win 74 individual constituencies and a total of 121 seats (61 percent of all mandates). The Tisza Party could win all the constituencies in Budapest, half of the constituencies in Pest County and constituencies of several county seats accounting for the remaining 32 individual constituencies, winning a total of 71 seats (36 percent of all mandates). The Democratic Coalition would win six seats, and one mandate would go to the the ethnic German minority. Of course, the next 16 months could bring many more twists and turns, and every election result estimate works with several variables, but based on the above data, it can be stated that in an election held this Sunday, a Fidesz victory would be certain.

Methodology

The research by the Nezopont Institute was conducted between 9 and 11 December 2024 by telephone interviewing a thousand people. The sample is representative of the population aged 18 and over by gender, age, region, type of settlement and educational level. With a sample size of 1,000 and a confidence level of 95 percent, the sampling error is ± 3.16 percent. The data have been rounded to the nearest whole number, so the summed values may not add up to exactly 100. The seat estimates are based on the most likely national list results of the parties, taking into account both the election history data and the new national constituency boundaries. For the votes cast by Hungarians abroad, the 2022 rates were taken into account.