Like it or not, Central Europe has a historical responsibility to prevent the outbreak of a nuclear world war. This assertion did not come from thin air or some kind of confused vision. The war which is formally called the Russian-Ukrainian war, but could also be considered a regional NATO-Russian conflict – while in reality it is an American-Russian power struggle – is approaching a stage which will quash any chances of maintaining European and world peace. We are talking about the fact that Ukraine is counting on receiving more military equipment and weapons than ever before if all 11 countries – that made their declarations – complete those orders. Over the past year, Ukraine has continuously been receiving weapons, however, the aforementioned plan would be a strategic change. Above all, an important difference is that, in addition to German, French, English, and mainly American suppliers, countries such as Sweden and Denmark are also sending sizeable amounts. A very prominent paradigm-change would happen if, amid the Polish and Baltic battle cries, Czech and Slovak weapons would also begin making their way to Ukraine, as their governments have declared.
Do you comprehend this?! Central Europe which, in the event of a Russian attack with weapons of mass destruction, is at the highest risk, could enter the armed conflict. Going against any common sense. The Polish political leadership, not the Polish people, will sacrifice the strategic defense of their country for a flyby political interest? Do Warsaw, Prague, and Bratislava really believe that America’s unprincipled service is the guarantee of their future? Is it not possible to recognize the many examples spanning hundreds of years where small nations become the cannon fodder in the war games of the great powers? It is no surprise that the Polish ego is satisfied at the sight of Russian losses.
And of course, the embargos against Russian gas and oil also came in handy for Warsaw because this way, the value of Polish coal mines increases in the world energy market. The fact that the Czech and Slovak governments are doing exactly what Washington demands is not an unsolvable mystery.
At the same time, if they take up arms against Russian military powers, they are preparing the destruction of Central Europe. The protective umbrella that covers all of Central and Eastern Europe, including Hungary, would be removed.
Given its natural form, Central Europe is a corridor and buffer zone between the two great power systems. In the past 30 years it seemed that the leading politicians of the region recognized and understood what they can do while also sensing the limitations and risks as well. In the context of 2023, all of this means that they cannot actively participate in a clash whose escalation would specifically threaten the security of their countries. The 1990s were a similar situation when American fighter jets were bombing Belgrade, and in accordance with Western doctrine, they chopped up Serbia. Central Europe – along with the Western European nations – tolerated this without a word and driven by self-defense, did not go against the attackers, the United States. None of the countries even ventured to supply weapons to the attacked Serbia. Just as we Hungarians and the rest were able to behave in a calm and restrained manner at that time, what are these battle cries for dear Polish, Baltic, Czech and Slovak politicians?
It is possible that a world war could still break out if this region of Europe remains neutral. The bottom line is however, that Russian nuclear missiles will only be used in the offensive if Russia is not able to hold the front with traditional weaponry. Sending more and increasingly effective weapons to Ukraine clearly does not portend peace, but conflict escalation.
Moreover, Moscow is not the only root cause of Ukraine’s decline. It is Germany that can claim the lion’s share. And I am not referring to the handful of rusty German armored fighting vehicles that are being dragged to the Ukrainian battlefield, but the large-scale “import” of the Ukrainian workforce. Today the process has become clear because the majority of those leaving Ukraine are not fleeing from the Russians – although they do not want to become cannon fodder either – but are looking to the welcoming Germany as a hope for a better life. A few years ago, the lords of Berlin saw the illegal migrants as a solution to their labor force issues. Today however, it turns out the illegal invading masses from Asia and Africa did not come to integrate, but to conquer Europe countries. In comparison, the Ukrainian workers who arrive with their European identity aim to integrate as quickly as possible and settle permanently in the German or other Western European labor market.
But what does this have to do with the countries of Central Europe? Not much considering that from Austria to Germany to the British Isles, Polish, Czech, Slovak and Hungarian jobseekers are still welcomed with open arms.
The role of this region of Europe which includes Hungary is unique in preventing a nuclear world war. Together we would be able to protect Europe from the expanding war if, like Hungary, the rest of the countries did not supply weapons to either side, as was the case with Serbia.
An even more effective form of resistance against the will of warlords would be if Central Europe – from the Baltics to the Balkans – would not allow weapons from Western Europe to cross their territory. With this, an immediate ceasefire would ensue and negotiations between the warring parties would begin under international supervision in an effort to bring peace. With the cooperation and determination of the relevant countries, the threat of nuclear war could be eliminated in the foreseeable future.
There should be no need to fear Washington viewing this as an unfriendly measure and launching NATO’s wars against our countries since we are also supposedly a part of NATO, and not just the United States’ arms factory.
The author is a secret service and security policy expert and President of the board of trustees of the Safe Society Foundation
Photo: Illustration (Photo: MTI/EPA/Sztaniszlav Kozliuk)
