Gladden Pappin: Hungary Is Making a Growing Impression on International Community

Less than a week and a half into the Hungarian EU presidency, Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban have constantly been making the headlines in the international press: as part of his peace mission first the PM's talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and then with Russian President Vladimir Putin were highlighted, and earlier this week the newly formed Patriots for Europe group has become the third largest in the European Parliament. In an interview for Magyar Nemzet we asked Gladden Pappin, president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, about the Russia-Ukraine war, the NATO summit that started yesterday and about the US presidential election.

Gladden Pappin, a Magyar Külügyi Intézet elnöke Fotó: Havran Zoltán

For decades, the European People's Party (EPP) has had the strongest group in the EP, but this year we are seeing the rise of the Right. Can it be said that much of Europe is experiencing a shift to the right?

Let's take a look at Italy, Germany and France: Italy has a conservative, national-minded government, while in Germany the traditional parties have been significantly weakened. And in France, President Emmanuel Macron has been forced to call early National Assembly elections because of the National Rally's gains in the European elections. So if we look at these big countries, it is clear that national-minded forces are gaining strength.

The NATO summit in Washington ends today. With the end of the war being far from in sight, what are Kyiv's chances of joining the alliance?

At the moment, NATO does not hold a favorable position on Ukraine's application for membership, and it seems to me that a solution to the war should be found first, until then nothing is clear. It is important that organizations like NATO and the European Union should follow clear rules and are not subject to ideological or even geopolitical pressure. So the process first requires that there should be peace.

Going back to NATO, Jens Stoltenberg will be replaced as secretary general by Mark Rutte, who guaranteed that Hungary will be left out of the Ukraine mission. Meanwhile, Viktor Orban presented a peace proposal to President Zelensky. What do you think we can expect in terms of the Russia-Ukraine war?

Well, the appetite in the United States for direct support for war has waned, and now with the considerable power of former President Donald Trump, it seems more likely that the United States will take the pro-peace course. And with the United States being the most important military actor, I think that also pushes the process towards peace.

Hungary has therefore achieved an important result, namely an agreement with NATO not to participate in this mission, given that NATO is a peaceful defense alliance that cannot extend its remit to conflicts that do not take place on its territory.

Hungary's position reflects NATO's status as a defense alliance. Concluding this agreement has been one of the most important successes accomplished in Hungarian foreign policy this year.

Photo: Zoltan Havran

With the US presidential election fast approaching, President Joe Biden is playing his last cards. Is it possible that Trump's opponent will not be the incumbent president after all?

Joe Biden is under tremendous pressure to step aside as the Democratic Party presidential candidate. However, replacing him would be difficult, as the selection process is essentially over and his natural successor would be Kamala Harris, who is not very popular in the Democrats' camp. So the Democrats don't have good options, and their camp almost collapsed in recent days because of the president's embarrassing performance. All this also indicates that the party has been hiding President Biden's worsening condition for some time. It is also very important that the United States has a strong leadership role in the world as a whole, while we are witnessing the most dramatic moments in the American campaign. We will know for sure in a few weeks' time whether Joe Biden wants to stay or step aside, but either way, he will have to decide his own political future while the Democratic Party is plunged into its biggest crisis in the last forty years.

Do the Democrats still have a chance of their candidate winning the presidential election? The polls point to the contrary.

Democrats area very good when it comes to getting out the vote, and many of the rules currently in place favor Democratic candidates, such as early voting and voting by mail. However, the Republicans have also improved a lot in this respect since 2020, and they will be much more competitive in the presidential elections. I think it would be very difficult for the Democrats to win with Biden in this situation, and it is likely that they have permanently damaged their chances, because it will be difficult to bring the party back  together. 

Cover photo: Gladden Pappin, president of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (Photo: Zoltan Havran)