Due to the war in Ukraine, nearly every European country has increased its defense spending, with many planning to raise it above the NATO-recommended 2 percent of GDP—or have already done so. In Germany, following the outbreak of war, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, policy: a 100-billion-euro fund was established to rapidly develop the Bundeswehr. This is urgently needed, as Germany—despite producing world-class weapons—has traditionally refrained from large-scale military buildup due to its role in the two World Wars. However, the goal is now clear, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius speaking of building a war-ready or war-capable (“Kriegstüchtig”) military.
France has also begun major military upgrading. In 2023, the parliament passed the military planning law for 2024–2030, allocating a total of 413 billion euros for defense. This means France’s annual defense budget will increase significantly not only in nominal terms but also proportionally—spending is expected to surpass 3 percent of GDP in the coming years.
Poland has become the most actively militarizing European country since the war began. In May 2024, it announced the details of the “East Shield” program, worth 10 billion zloty (2.5 billion dollars), aimed at beefing up defenses along its border with Belarus and Russia. This has become especially critical since Belarus and Russia, as part of hybrid warfare, have repeatedly attempted to destabilize Poland’s eastern borders by pushing waves of migrants across since 2021. In 2024, Warsaw ramped up defense spending to over 4 percent of its economic output, the highest proportion in NATO after the United States and Greece.
Having given up its traditional neutrality and joined NATO in 2023, Sweden raised its 2024 military budget to around 120 billion Swedish kronor (11 billion dollars), nearly double the 2020 level. This brought it to the 2 percent GDP threshold in 2024, and a multiparty defense committee proposed further increases to 2.6 percent by 2030.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—NATO’s Baltic members bordering Russia—had already surpassed 2 percent of GDP in defense spending by 2022. Collectively, they aim to exceed 3 percent in the near future. Estonia allocated about 3.2 percent of GDP to defense in 2024, Lithuania plans to reach 3 percent by 2025, and Latvia aims to meet the 3 percent target by 2027.
The United Kingdom has also increased its defense budget due to the war. In early 2025—after a change in government—the new British prime minister confirmed that defense spending will be raised to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027. This will mean an additional 13.4 billion pounds annually over current levels. The help provided to Ukraine during the war revealed significant weaknesses in the UK’s armed forces, including the urgent need to expand ammunition production capacities. This issue has become evident across EU countries as well, underscoring the need to shake up the defense industry.
Europe Awakening?
In March 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a five-point initiative called "ReArm Europe", aimed at strengthening the EU’s defense industry and boosting military capabilities.
The latest EU plan aims to mobilize nearly 800 billion euros, which member states could direct toward defense investments. Von der Leyen emphasized that Europe must be prepared to guarantee its own security—especially in light of the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine. The plan also aims to provide urgent military assistance to Ukraine.
The document titled "White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030" was published by the European Commission in March 2025. Among its main goals are addressing Europe's military capability gaps, supporting the defense industry, deepening the single defense market, speeding up innovation, and improving Europe's preparedness for worst-case scenarios. The White Paper emphasizes that Europe must act proactively to safeguard its own security and always be ready for the worst possible outcomes.
Borrowing Again
Europe would finance part or all of its defense spending through joint debt issuance. Actions taken by the new US administration could accelerate the realization of this plan: Trump’s statements—that Europe must look after its own regional security and provide Ukraine with security guarantees against Russia—are pressing the EU to secure funding fast for military investments. As a result, the European Commission proposed issuing 150 billion euros in joint debt to finance European arms purchases as part of the previously mentioned 800 billion euro package. Frugal countries countries that would traditionally oppose joint borrowing, like the Netherlands, are now less resistant, especially since Germany's Germany's support has swung the dynamic of the conversation.
However, borrowing for the development of the defense industry won’t be plain sailing. EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius stated that the EU is not yet ready to issue common bonds—so-called Eurobonds—for the purpose of increasing defense spending. Kubilius pointed out that Eurobonds would increase the EU’s overall debt, which all member states would have to repay collectively, even as repaying existing debt already poses challenges.
He emphasized that before committing to any new joint debt, member states should first fully utilize the existing instruments and options available to enhance defense capabilities.
Common European Army?
A recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a renowned American national security think tank, argued that Europe’s defense structure—based on multiple national armies—is ineffective and unsustainable without U.S. support. Although the bloc has nearly two million soldiers and spends about 338 billion dollars annually on defense, the resources are not used efficiently due to fragmented and overlapping military capabilities.
The authors recommend establishing a joint European army, which would allow for more efficient spending, better coordination of operations, and increased strategic autonomy for Europe.
An article published by Verfassungsblog, known for its in-depth legal, constitutional, and international law analysis, outlines three key decisions that EU member states must make to build a joint European army. First, they must decide to what extent they are willing to share sovereignty and decision-making power within a common defense structure. Second, they need to agree on how to fund a common military force, taking into account the varying economic situations and defense budgets of member states. Third, they must reach consensus on the army’s strategic priorities and deployment criteria, considering the differences in national interests and perceived threats. This will undoubtedly be a long and complex process.
Civil Defense
While EU military development might come together relatively quickly, the creation of a common European army remains a long-term goal. However, there is one area where member states have made notable progress compared to past decades: the renovation of neglected civil defense infrastructure, which deteriorated across much of Europe after the Cold War. This mainly includes bomb shelters, air raid sirens, and emergency stockpiles.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, several countries embarked on construction and renovation projects. In Germany, lawmakers even proposed a law requiring newly built apartment buildings to include safe shelters—similar to regulations already in place in Poland.
On April 23, 2023, after more than a decade of preparation, the UK government conducted a nationwide test of its new emergency alert system. The system is designed to warn the population in life-threatening situations. During the test, all compatible mobile phones emitted a loud, siren-like sound and displayed a text message informing users of the nature of the alert and necessary actions.
Polish authorities established distribution points for free iodine tablets in response to fears of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Tablets were also delivered to schools, town halls, and fire stations to ensure quick access in case of emergency.
Numerous signs suggest that Europe is preparing for war. But does the continent have the military strength to back this up? We’ll explore this question in the next installment of our series.
(To be continued)
