Hungarian-Polish friendship in crosshairs: who foments discord?

The war in Ukraine poisoning Hungarian-Polish friendship is a frequent allegation. Is this really enough to end a centuries-old alliance? And who has an interest in fomenting discord between Hungary and Poland? Mihaly Rosonczy-Kovacs, director of foreign affairs at the Nezopont Institute and a board member of the Waclaw Felczak Foundation, sought answers to these questions, while also recollecting the conclusions of a roundtable held at the 32nd Balvanyos Free Summer University in Baile Tusnad.

Budapest, 2021. november 4. A Miniszterelnöki Sajtóiroda által közreadott képen Orbán Viktor kormányfő (j) és Mateusz Morawiecki lengyel kormányfő kezet fog a V4-Dél-Korea-csúcstalálkozó előtti V4-es egyeztetésen Budapesten, a Várkert Bazárban 2021. november 4-én. MTI/Miniszterelnöki Sajtóiroda/Fischer Zoltán Fotó: Miniszterelnöki Sajtóiroda/Fischer Zoltán

According to the expert, the alliance may have been targeted because the right-wing Hungarian and Polish governments' vision of a self-reliant Europe based on Christianity, families, strong nations preserving their cultural features differs from the federalist vision, and therefore there are many efforts to weaken relations between Budapest and Warsaw.

Common strategic goals

The state of Hungarian-Polish relations and the impact of the war in Ukraine were also discussed at the 32nd Balvanyos Free Summer University and Student Camp in Baile Tusnad, where experts assessed the situation in a panel discussion entitled Trust in God and Keep the Gunpowder Dry - Security Policy in the Shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war. The roundtable was attended from Poland by Jacek Karnowski, editor-in-chief of the weekly Sieci and Michal Kwilecki, president of the Hungarian-Polish Friendship Society in Wroclaw; from Hungary by Attila Demko, head of the Center for Geopolitics at Mathias Corvinus Collegium and Matyas Szilagyi, senior researcher at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and former ambassador to Chisinau.

Photo: Facebook/Waclaw Felczak Foundation

As a starting point, the discussion's moderator, Mihaly Rosonczy-Kovacs, quoting a sentence from Prime Minister Viktor Orban's state of the nation speech this year, recalled that Hungary and Poland share the same strategic goals.

We want Russia not to be a threat to Europe, and we want there to be a sufficiently broad and deep area between Russia and Hungary: a sovereign Ukraine.

Attila Demko reiterated that little is known about Hungary's real position in Europe, including Poland. "For Hungary, Ukraine's sovereignty is of fundamental strategic importance, and so is its territorial integrity, we repeatedly say. So there is no difference between the Hungarian and Polish positions," he explained. Hungary does not support Russia, he underlined. He also pointed out that a significant part of the oil and gas coming from Russia is transferred to Ukraine.

Russia will attack again

A productive, lively debate unfolded around the possibility of ending the war. The stakes are high, said  Jacek Karnowski, as the goal is pushing back Russia and ensuring long-term security in the region. 

If we do not defeat Russia, sooner or later it will attack again!

he warned.

Victory, according to Karnowski, means a complete Russian withdrawal, including from Crimea. Attila Demko, however, pointed out that it is impossible to see at what cost and in what timeframe a Ukrainian victory could be achieved. "We can see that the incredible amount of assistance given to Ukraine is not necessarily enough for a military victory," he opined.

Michal Kwilecki, who praised the calmness of the Hungarian political leadership, said that the success of the Ukrainian offensive depends on Joe Biden, but added that the attitude of the United States towards the war is inconsistent.

They help Ukraine enough not to lose, but not enough to win,

he pointed out. According to the political scientist from Wroclaw, it is important to be clear about what we mean by peace and what principles we want to follow to achieve it.

 

Knowing little about Hungary's position 

Kwilecki confirmed that the Poles know little about the real stance Hungary holds and about the underlying reasons.  He also pointed out how important Hungary is for Poland, for example in European political debates.

Hungary is our only ally,

he underlined.

Discussing NATO's role, participants agreed that Hungary and Poland are among the most committed members of the alliance. Both countries are implementing significant military development projects. Jacek Karnowksi emphasized that the modernisation of the Polish armed forces is aimed at enabling Poland to defend itself against an external attack on its own if necessary.

Rosonczy-Kovacs pointed out that in recent months, the media present Polish-Romanian cooperation, which has evidently become more active, as a possible alternative to Hungarian-Polish friendship, instead of highlighting how the three nations can work together for the region.

The senior researcher from the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs pointed out that Hungarian-Polish-Romanian trilateral cooperation has operational potentials ready to be launched. He cited the opening of new border crossing points as an example, and praised Romania's efforts to start oil production in the Black Sea, which is a major development for Hungary's energy security.

In his closing remarks, Matyas Szilagyi expressed his conviction that the historic Hungarian-Polish friendship will emerge stronger from the current period of challenges. "We depend on each other, and this is true for the whole region," the former ambassador underlined.

Cover photo: Prime Minister Viktor Orban (r) shakes hands with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki at the Visegrad Group (V4) talks ahead of the V4–South Korea summit at Varkert Bazar, Budapest, on 4 November 2021 (Photo: MTI/PM's Press Office/Zoltan Fischer)