The European Union Faces a Turbulent Year

The European Union’s globalist leadership is bracing for a challenging year ahead. Three main issues loom large: financing the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia’s aggressive foreign policy, and the rise of Donald Trump, as well as the Patriots for Europe movement. Alongside these ideological challenges, the EU must contend with weak economic performance, high debt levels, and political instability in Germany and France.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (Photo: AFP)

The EU's new leadership - Antonio Costa as President of the European Council, Kaja Kallas as High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and Ursula von der Leyen leading the European Commission - faces a host of urgent political tasks. For the pro-war globalists, the top priority is maintaining financial and military support for Ukraine. The EU plans to provide €1.5 billion in monthly aid to Ukraine through 2025, complemented by a €50 billion G7 loan that could partially be financed using frozen Russian assets.

Additionally, the EU plans to supply Ukraine with a substantial quantity of ammunition and weapons.

However, Trump’s potential presidency and his peace-oriented stance pose serious challenges for left-wing leaders, as he may reduce or entirely cut off U.S. support for Ukraine. In such a scenario, Brussels would need to figure out how to secure alternative resources to cover the shortfall. Should this place a heavier burden on member states, Brussels risks incurring greater public discontent across Europe and further boosting support for the Patriots for Europe. This movement has already become the third.largest party family in the European Parliament in just a few months, 

offering a real alternative for the EU's disillusioned citizens seeking peace.

PM Viktor Orban highlighted the changing European political landscape and the growing strength of the Patriots in several year-end statements.

In an interview with Magyar Nemzet, Mr. Orban emphasized that 

we have a strategy for establishing cooperation with European conservatives and for making it clear to the member parties of the European People’s Party that true Christian Democratic right, and traditions, are upheld by the Patriots, not by them.

Diplomatic circles in Brussels are rife with speculation about how much financial support will ultimately be required.

Andrius Kubilius, Commissioner for Defense and Space Policy, is tasked not with creating a European army but with better coordinating member states’ defense procurement policies. However, many member states have defense budgets too limited to quickly invest in new weapons, and the public has increasingly diverged from the stance of leading EU officials.  

According to the results of a survey, support for backing Ukraine “until victory” is highest in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%), with significant backing in the United Kingdom (36%). However, these figures have dropped markedly compared to early in the year. Meanwhile, the number of people favoring peace negotiations has risen substantially in Italy, Spain, France, and Germany.

If Trump was to cut off U.S. financial aid to Ukraine, pressure on pro-war factions would only intensify. Germany alone is grappling with projected a €230-billion shortfall in its defense budget.

German Finance Minister Jorg Kukies has rejected the idea of joint EU borrowing for military funding, a position shared by a significant portion of the EU.

In 2025, the EU will not only need to address defense spending, but also manage funding for climate-friendly economic transitions, economic support measures, and the reconstruction of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has spoken of an €800-billion investment need and emphasized the importance of joint borrowing, which would further increase the EU’s already substantial debt.

France and Italy are already burdened by EU deficit procedures, and Spain could face similar challenges. Meanwhile, Germany, constrained by the upcoming elections in February, is fiscally paralyzed. And if all that weren’t enough, the EU’s planned trade war with China over electric vehicles adds yet another layer of challenge and difficulty.

Cover photo: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (Photo: AFP)