Why Liberal Europe Fears Herbert Kickl’s Rise to Power

Zoltan Kiszelly, director of political analysis at the Szazadveg Public Knowledge Center Foundation, highlighted concerns in Brussels and Berlin over the possibility of having another prime minister, alongside Viktor Orban, who would veto sanctions against Russia, aid for Ukraine, and mandatory migrant quotas. Regarding the Austrian Freedom Party’s success in Austria’s parliamentary elections, Mr. Kiszelly pointed to people's growing dissatisfaction with the mainstream political parties.

Herbert Kickl, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO), leaves after casting his vote during the Austrian Parliament’s plenary session in Vienna on October 24, 2024, marking the first session following the National Council elections (Photo: Alex Halada/AFP)

As a precursor to Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s resignation, analyst Kiszelly Zoltan explained, in response to Magyar Nemzet's question, that attempts were made to form a grand coalition with the Social Democrats, which would have resulted in a one-seat majority. Alternatively, a stable governing majority could have been achieved by including the liberal NEOS, but the parties were unable to agree on the austerity package.

This is why the parties couldn’t form a coalition government; they had differing approaches to consolidating the budget, 

– the expert said. The negotiations were further complicated by the fact that the Social Democratic Party has a left-leaning leader, Andreas Babler, and that the liberal NEOS persues such German-style policies that other parties find difficult to follow, he added. The liberals demand a level of fiscal discipline that may be justified, so their goal is to implement it both in Germany and Austria, something the European Union expects. 

However, the implementation is very politically challenging, which further complicated the talks,

Mr. Kiszelly added.

Regarding the fact that the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) garnered the most votes in Austria’s parliamentary elections, Mr.Kiszelly noted people's growing dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties.

If we look at it, mainstream parties can no longer provide the kind of stability and prosperity they once did. Migration policy in Austria has caused significant dissatisfaction, with Social Democratic and People’s Party governments admitting roughly 200,000 migrants—a move that Austrians no longer approve of. We can also see that most workers in Austria now vote for the Freedom Party. Another contributing factor is opposition to vaccination policies, as the Freedom Party was the only major party to take a stand against them. This stance brought them many new voters, and their support has now risen to around 35 percent, compared to 29 percent in last September’s election.

The background to this is that during the pandemic, Austria and Bavaria implemented very strict vaccination policies, punishing and ostracizing those who did not get vaccinated. In Austria, plans were afoot to make even the fourth jab mandatory.

Those who were opposed to such measures, and migration, voted for the Austrian Freedom Party, as did many young people, Mr. Kiszelly explained, adding that 

those wanting to rebel are now voting right.

Based on the previous election results, people expect President Alexander Van der Bellen to give Herbert Kickl the mandate to form a government. However, it is unclear whether the president will take this step, resulting in a situation that could ultimately lead to new elections in Austria.

Herbert Kickl is blocked from power due to his policies, as many are afraid of him.

Mr. Kiszelly also underscored that Brussels and Berlin’s reluctance to let Mr. Kickl govern stems from a broader concern: Brussels and Berlin simply cannot allow to have another leader, alongside Viktor Orban, to veto the EU's sanctions against Russia and assistance to Ukraine, and the mandatory migrant quotas. 

Ursula von der Leyen has stated that from 2028, even the first eurocent of the EU’s budget will be distributed based on political criteria. The current elite must delay the bloc's sovereignist, nationalist and patriotic leaders from taking power until 2028, because after that, the decisions they cannot block at the member states' level will be blocked at the EU level. And budgetary blackmail is one tool for that,

– he explained.

On Saturday, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced his resignation after coalition negotiations for forming a new government collapsed. Herbert Kickl, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, called Mr.Nehammer’s resignation logical, but overdue. On Sunday, in his first statement after his appointment as leader of the Austrian People’s Party, Christian Stocker underlined that they'll accept the Freedom Party’s invitation to conduct coalition talks.

Cover photo: Herbert Kickl, leader of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO), leaves after casting his vote during the Austrian Parliament’s plenary session in Vienna on October 24, 2024, marking the first session following the National Council elections (Photo: Alex Halada/AFP)