JP Morgan Is Already Writing Ukraine Off

With Europe running out of weapons, Ukraine running out of fighters, and U.S. patience wearing thin amid weakening transatlantic unity, President Zelensky will likely be forced at some point this year to accept a deal with Russia that freezes the fighting but does not result in a comprehensive peace treaty. The influential investment advisory firm outlines four potential scenarios for Ukraine’s future—none of which include a Ukrainian victory.

While Putin's losses are also unsustainable, at the current pace it would take Russia approximately 118 years to occupy all of Ukraine. Therefore, Putin is expected to seek a deal that serves his ultimate goal: control over Kyiv. According to JP Morgan's geopolitical analysis, 2025 is the year of negotiations, and the endgame has begun.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (Photo: AFP)

JP Morgan emphasizes that the longevity of any agreement will depend on whether President Putin is satisfied with Ukrainian and Western concessions—did he get enough of what he wanted?

Both sides need a deal they can defend politically, the report states, noting that:

the weaker the security promises, the more concessions Ukraine will have to swallow—neutrality, demilitarization, disarmament, territory, etc.—or risk a return to fighting.

JP Morgan’s Four Scenarios for Ukraine:

1. Best-Case  
   President Zelensky achieves neither NATO membership nor full restoration of Ukraine’s territory. However, if he secures a U.S. security guarantee and the stationing of European troops in the country, the 80% of Ukraine still under Kyiv’s control could embark on a more stable, prosperous, and democratic path.
2. Still Acceptable
   Ukraine receives strong and sustained military and economic aid without foreign troops on the ground. This scenario allows for continued military modernization and gradual deterrence buildup, but the threat of war would constantly loom due to Russia’s economic dominance and potentially stronger relationship with the U.S.
3.  Not Great

In the absence of both foreign troops and strong military support, Ukraine will experience ongoing instability, stunted growth and recovery, waning foreign support over time, and the effective derailment of its Western integration (i.e., EU and NATO membership), with gradual drift back into Russia’s orbit.
Ukraine could initially benefit from reconstruction assistance. But without firm integration into Western security and political structures, Ukraine risks slowly drifting into a geopolitical gray zone. Some of the nearly 7 million Ukrainian refugees may decide not to return, depriving the economy of skilled labor.

Security concerns deter risk-averse investors, limiting foreign direct investment and economic diversification. Ukraine may again become dependent on vulnerable trade routes and informal ties to Russia.

If arms capacity limitations are part of any agreement, this could choke Ukraine’s promising defense and tech sector—one of the few engines for postwar growth.

4. Worst-Case 

If the United States abandons Ukraine—or is perceived as switching sides—and Europe fails to step up, Russia will hold firm to its maximalist demands and seek Ukraine’s total capitulation, turning the country into a vassal state of Moscow. In this scenario, Russia will have effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably upended the post-World War II world order. 

Putin's Likely Demands, According to JP Morgan: 

• No NATO membership or declaration of Ukrainian neutrality
• No nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil
• No foreign troops (including peacekeepers) stationed in Ukraine
• No foreign military aid or intelligence-sharing
• No expansion of Ukraine’s military personnel
• No deliveries of modern weapons to Ukraine
   

Russia would likely accept:

• Recognition of Crimea and four other regions as Russian
• Veto power over Western security guarantees to Ukraine
• Ban on U.S. and NATO military exercises in new member states
• Reduced U.S. military presence in Europe
• Sanctions relief and unfreezing of Russian assets
• Return of Russian diplomatic properties in the U.S.
   

The shifts in U.S. policy toward Ukraine and other global issues are fueling European calls for greater “strategic autonomy” from their most important ally and largest trading partner. JP Morgan notes:

The second major shock, according to the report, came from the abrupt U.S. policy pivot—symbolized by President Zelensky’s tense Oval Office visit on February 28, 2025.

Russia’s full-scale invasion shocked a continent lulled into post-Cold War complacency and sparked bold changes to European security, energy, and economic policies in support of both Kyiv and the post-war international order the conflict has come to represent. 

The second shock, according to JP Morgan's  analysis was the abrupt shift in U.S. policy as exemplified by President Zelensky’s visit to the Oval office on February 28, 2025.

The tense visit, preceded days earlier by a U.S. vote in the United Nations against a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression and then followed by the temporary suspension of U.S. military and intelligence aid to Ukraine, was a thunderclap across Europe.

Meanwhile, Ukraine Is Insolvent 

As reported earlier, international credit agency Fitch has declared Ukraine effectively insolvent. Inflation continues to surge, while both economic and governmental stability deteriorate. Fitch Ratings affirmed Ukraine’s credit rating at “Restricted Default,” citing skyrocketing eventual reconstruction costs and deep-rooted corruption.

Cover photo: “Support Ukraine” Summit in Kyiv – February 24, 2025 (Photo: AFP / Gleb Garanich)