New Research: Fidesz Victory Expected in 66 Constituencies

In April, most of Hungary’s electoral map is expected to turn orange again, as revealed by the mandate forecast project of the Nezopont Institute. Based on previous election data, nationwide public opinion polls, and independent surveys conducted in several constituencies during 2026, it can be estimated with a high degree of probability that governing party candidates could win in 66 of the 106 constituencies.

Fidesz is the safe choice (Photo: Hungarian PM's General Department of Communication/Zoltan Fischer)

Several methods can be used to estimate expected outcomes in the 106 constituencies. Since the winner in each district is the candidate who receives the most votes, identifying likely constituency winners can be done with considerable accuracy.

The Nezopont Institute applied three methods simultaneously. By analyzing previous election data, the political leaning of individual districts can be determined. Another method—also used in mandate calculators—takes into account the usual deviation of each constituency from national poll results. The most accurate picture comes from representative surveys conducted in individual constituencies, which the institute carried out in 30 districts during the first three months of 2026.

By combining these approaches, the analysis concludes that out of the 106 constituencies, 44 can be considered almost certain wins for the Fidesz–KDNP alliance, while 27 are likely to be won by opposition candidates.

Of the 27 constituencies expected to go to the opposition, 26 are projected to be won by candidates of the Tisza Party, and one by another opposition candidate allied with Tisza.

Of the remaining 35 constituencies, 22 are likely to be won by governing party candidates, while in 13 districts Tisza challengers are expected to finish first.

Overall, this means that Fidesz–KDNP can expect to win 66 constituencies, while the Tisza Party can count on victories in 39, with one additional constituency likely to go to another opposition candidate aligned with Tisza.

Candidates from Our Homeland (Mi Hazank), the Democratic Coalition (DK), the Two-Tailed Dog Party, or other independent contenders appear unlikely to win individual constituencies.

This projection also indicates that, alongside 66 constituency victories, the governing parties would need to secure 34 list mandates to achieve a parliamentary majority and ensure the re-election of Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

               

       

       
       

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