Ever since the Russian Il-76 plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war was shot down, the propaganda war machine has again kicked into high speed, but there is a significant difference between the explanations put forth by the two sides.
If you look at the communications of the two countries, you can see that the Russians are consistently saying the same thing 80 percent of the time, while with the Ukrainians, we've heard practically five or six variations on what happened,
security policy expert Jozsef Horvath said, analyzing the situation for Magyar Nemzet.
The Ukrainian narrative developed quite dramatically starting with they didn't shoot it down, then to they did shoot it down under the impression it was carrying Iran-made missiles, to they were told that it was carrying high-ranking [Russian] officers, then to the point where they conceded it was carrying prisoners of war, but that the Russians didn't inform them.
Putin could have evidence
By contrast, the expert said that the Russian president's statement should be taken seriously for several reasons.
This was not the first prisoner exchange between the two armies,
he recalled, underlining that despite the heightened political tensions, there is communication between the two sides on POWs and fallen soldiers. Base on this, Russia may have evidence to prove that it acted in accordance with previous successful prisoner exchanges and informed the Ukrainian side of the plane's passengers.
Why not present the evidence?
Provided the Russians do have credible evidence, they will not come forward with it - despite some Russian channels showing material of questionable background - because they simply have no interest in doing so.
The likely aim is to have a trump card in their hands to discredit Ukraine on the international stage.
I highly doubt that President Putin would make an irresponsible statement, opening him up for accusations of lying two months before the presidential election,
the expert noted.
Ukraine's internal tensions intensify
As for Ukraine, Jozsef Horvath does not rule out the possibility of internal conflicts developing. The noticeably growing tension between the Ukrainian political and military leadership may have given rise to a scenario in which General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, has to be removed from the battlefield.
Should the events turn out to be a Ukrainian mistake, then Zaluzhnyi, as commander-in-chief, could be held responsible.
