Recent opinion polls paint a mixed picture regarding whether Fidesz–KDNP or the Tisza Party is leading the political race. At the Tusvanyos event, Prime Minister Viktor Orban cited internal polling data, claiming that if elections were held this Sunday, the governing parties could win as many as 80 constituencies. The news outlet Index obtained more details of the data the PM was referring to. This particular report focuses on Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County's 5th constituency as well as Budapest's 6th constituency.
In Szabolcs County's 5th Constituency (centered around the town of Mateszalka) according to the numbers, Fidesz–KDNP still leads, though significantly weakened compared to its 2022 results. The current party standings:
- Fidesz–KDNP – 39.7 %
- Tisza Party – 32 %
- Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) – 4.4 %
- Democratic Coalition (DK) – 2.9 %
- Jobbik – 1.7 %
- Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) – 0.8 %
- Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog (MKKP) – 0.6 %
- Momentum – 0.5 %
- LMP (Greens) – 0.1 %
- Dialogue (Parbeszed) – 0.1 %
All other parties combined received 0.4%. Respondents who said they wouldn’t vote or didn’t reveal their preference made up 5%, while undecided or uncertain voters accounted for 11.9%. The poll was conducted in July 2025 via telephone interviews (CATI method) with a sample size of 500 people.
Context:
In the 2022 elections, Fidesz–KDNP’s Sandor Kovacs won this district by a landslide, with 64.79% of the votes,
far ahead of the joint six-party opposition candidate Istvan Foldi, who had 24.58%, and Our Homeland's Istvan Apati, who secured 9.15%.
On the party list, Fidesz achieved 68.29%, even exceeding Kovacs’s personal result.
In Budapest’s 6th Constituency, the situation is completely different. The Tisza Party is currently leading:
- Tisza Party – 34.9 %
- Fidesz–KDNP – 26.6 %
- Democratic Coalition (DK) – 7.2 %
- Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog (MKKP) – 5.9 %
- Momentum – 4.3 %
- Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) – 3.8 %
- Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) – 2.8 %
- Jobbik – 2.5 %
- Dialogue (Parbeszed) – 2 %
- LMP (Greens)– 1.6 %
In this district, mainly comprised of Zuglo, the poll also measured support for individual candidates: the Tisza Party’s as yet-unnamed candidate would currently receive 31.2%; Akos Hadhazy, the sitting independent MP for the district, would get 29.1%; Adam Borbely from Fidesz–KDNP is polling at 26.4%; Our Homeland's candidate would receive 3.3%. The remaining 7.2% are undecided, refusing to answer, or supporting other candidates.
