Zelensky Presents Escalation Plan, Instead of Peace Plan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently unveiled his victory plan, which has sparked widespread dissatisfaction in the international arena. The plan, outlined in five bullet points and three secret clauses, includes NATO membership, pushing the front lines into Russian territory, deterring the attacking side, exploiting mineral resources and strengthening the military post-war. This is the foundation of Zelensky's plan, which points toward escalation rather than peace. We spoke with Zoltan Koskovics, geopolitical analyst at the Budapest-based Center for Fundamental Rights.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: AFP)

As long as the war continues, Ukraine cannot join NATO. For this and many other reasons, it is critically important for Ukraine to see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Unfortunately, Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory plan is not focused on peace, but on escalation, Zoltan Koskovics explained.

Producing an actual nuclear warhead would take years, and Moscow would do everything in its power to prevent that. While Ukraine could potentially develop "dirty" bombs from a technological standpoint, these are also unusable weapons, 

because their deployment would prompt an immediate Russian nuclear strike. And this would occur without Ukraine having any support from its Western allies, Mr. Koskovics emphasized.

He added that conventional deterrence could take one of two forms. Either Ukraine joins NATO - which seems highly unlikely - or it receives security guarantees similar to those provided to Israel, which would require a significant reinforcement of the country's defensive capabilities. This means building up modern Western weapons systems and replenishing ammunition stocks.

Even if European countries and the United States are potentially willing to supply these, which is by no means guaranteed, such efforts would take years to accomplish. “And, of course, freezing the conflict is a minimum prerequisite for any of this,” the think tank's expert underlined. 

The most reliable guarantee for Ukraine would be to secure a sustainable peace with Russia, which would make both countries invested in maintaining that peace. However, due to political and diplomatic reasons, Zelensky and his government are incapable of achieving this.

Ukraine possesses critical metals worth billions of dollars, particularly uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and other strategically important resources. Responding to our question regarding this issue, Mr. Koskovics confirmed that Ukraine does have significant mineral reserves. While a large portion of these resources are in Russian-occupied territories, there are also substantial deposits of rare earth metals and titanium far from the front lines. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, one of Kyiv’s most vocal supporters in Washington, remarked this past summer that 

Ukraine has trillions of dollars’ worth of vital mineral resources. Vladimir Putin cannot be allowed access to these resources, as he would share them with China.

So, it's clear that Western support for Kyiv is not solely driven by lofty principles and values, Mr. Koskovics pointed out.

Ukraine has trillions of dollars worth of critical minerals in their country.

Vladimir Putin cannot be allowed to access that money and those resources because he will share it with China. pic.twitter.com/gKlSMjSjEK

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) June 9, 2024

– This is not a victory plan but an escalation plan, which calls on the United States and Europe to openly join the war. However, this is highly unlikely. If it were to happen, it would be equivalent to the outbreak of World War III, and in such a global catastrophe, Ukraine would be the first country to be destroyed,” the geopolitical analyst from the Center for Fundamental Rights concluded.

Cover photo: Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (Photo: AFP)