Analysts Say Magyar Unlikely to Exercise Self-Restraint

It is too good to be true that a new government would simultaneously preserve existing benefits while expanding them, a left-wing analyst declared.

Peter Magyar, leader of the Tisza Party, on election night (Photo: NurPhoto/AFP/Marek Antoni Ivanczuk)

– It is “too good to be true” that a new governing majority would be able to simultaneously maintain family tax benefits, increase child allowances, preserve tax exemptions for mothers, cut VAT, and distribute SZEP cards to pensioners, political analyst Attila Nagy Tibor said on Tuesday’s edition of public broadcaster M1's public affairs program 48 perc.

Photo: Balazs Ladoczki 

Nagy noted that the first one to two years of a Tisza Party government could be economically difficult.

Asked whether the new government would need to introduce unpopular economic measures, he said he feared it would.

Political analyst Istvan Pocza, responding to a question about the practical steps needed to unlock EU funds for Hungary, said that the rule of law is a clear condition, which Peter Magyar could attempt to address by rewriting or amending the constitution. He added that Hungary would stand in the way of a proposed 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine, and that when it comes ti migration policy, the “rules must be twisted and adjusted so that they comply with EU expectations.”

However, he noted that EU institutions appear cautious toward Peter Magyar, as it is unclear what to expect from him,

– Nagy said. He added that, as in Poland, it is conceivable that a political agreement could be reached between the European Commission and a future Hungarian government to unlock EU funds. However, he added that Peter Magyar is not in the same position as Donald Tusk, who has extensive international political experience and a broad network of contacts.

On the migration pact, the poilitical analyst underlined that he sees room for maneuver for Magyar to find a formula for its implementation that could be “presented to Hungarian public opinion.” He also said the European Commission would not want to immediately put a new Hungarian government in an impossible position, and suggested that Ukraine could be asked to repair the Druzhba oil pipeline. According to him, this would not come for free: 

in exchange for oil supplies, Hungary might agree not to block EU approval of Ukraine’s loan.

In the second half of the program, Nagy said that fully implementing a 14th-month pension is difficult to imagine, and that tax exemptions for mothers would also be a “big bite” without 3–5 percent GDP growth. He added that if the Tisza Party succeeds in reaching an agreement on EU funds, it could have an economic stimulus effect, though procurement and tender procedures would still take one to two years.

Istvan Pocza said fuel prices would be relatively easy to adjust, but noted that Tisza had previously spoken about a 480-forint price cap, putting itself in a difficult communication position.

Another option would be to alter regulated utility prices, which the European Commission has long criticized. This could either be fully abolished, with serious social consequences, or converted into a tiered system,

– he said. Recalling analysts' speculation about a potential two-thirds Tisza majority, Pocza suggested it cannot be ruled out that the Tisza Party could restructure the municipal system and call local elections as early as the autumn, in order to “entrench itself in local governments and later introduce unpopular measures.” Nagy said he also does not expect any self-restraint from Peter Magyar, because he gas the capacity to remove public officials listed during the campaign. 

All that is needed is a constitutional amendment, and it is done,

 – he said.

The two political analysts agreed that constitutional reform should not be rushed, and that markets are primarily concerned not with the identity of the president, but with whether economic policy and the legal environment will finally become predictable. Attila Tibor Nagy said it is not desirable for a government to view and steer the country solely through the interests of businesses. He added, however, that if the neoliberal-minded István Kapitány were to gain too much influence within the government, ‘a kind of distorted outlook could emerge.’ István Pócza said that if a government is unable to present an economic vision—whether due to its own mistakes or the international environment—it can put itself in a very difficult position. From this perspective, he argued, the Tisza Party will also face major challenges, which is why he expects a possible erosion of its ‘overnight-formed’ voter base.

Nagy also said the Tisza Party’s voter base is heterogeneous, including liberal left-wing voters, national radicals, greens, and social democrats, and he expects it will not be possible to keep it fully united.

Cover photo: Peter Magyar on election night (Photo: NurPhoto/AFP/Marek Antoni Ivanczuk)