Likely Distribution of the 199 Parliamentary Seats After April 12 Elections

It can be stated with high probability that the Fidesz–KDNP alliance will once again secure an absolute majority in Hungary's next national assembly, likely winning 109 out of 199 seats. This would ensure that Viktor Orban remains Hungary’s prime minister after the 2026 election. According to the mandate projection of the Nezopont Institute, the Tisza Party, together with Akos Hadhazy, could obtain 81 seats, while Our Homeland could secure eight. The 199th seat is expected to go to the Roma minority list.

Photo: MTI/Zoltan Balogh

The projection also took into account candidate withdrawals announced up to April 2.

How many seats are we talking about?

Based on the above estimates, the distribution of the 92 mandates that can be obtained from party-list votes can also be projected. The electoral system applies the d’Hondt method, selecting the 92 highest values from the quotients of all direct and indirect list votes calculated with whole numbers. Based on the estimation procedures outlined above, a total of 4,230,189 direct and indirect votes were taken into account for the Fidesz list, 4,016,368 for the Tisza list, and 881,333 for the list of Our Homeland. Accordingly, the Fidesz–KDNP list could secure 43 mandates, the Tisza Party  list 41, and the list of Our Homeland eight out of the total 92.

If we add the number of list mandates to the number of individually won constituencies, we arrive at the total number of mandates. 

Thus, Fidesz–KDNP could hold 109 seats, the Tisza Party eighty, Our Homeland eight, and the Roma minority one seat in the next parliament, while an additional mandate is expected to be won by independent Akos Hadhazy aligned with the Tisza Party.

With such majority situation, Viktor Orban's re-election as prime minister can be considered certain, the Nezopont Institute concludes.