Migration package could further boost Germany's thriving right wing

The conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party in the latest polls.

Brüsszel, 2023. március 23. Olaf Scholz német kancellár az Európai Unió kétnapos brüsszeli csúcstalálkozójának nyitó ülésére érkezik 2023. március 23-án. MTI/EPA/Stephanie Lecocq Fotó: Stephanie Lecocq

According to a recent poll, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has overtaken the Social Democrats (SPD) and secured second place behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), writes the Euractiv news portal. A recently published poll by YouGov found that 20 percent of Germans would vote for the conservative AfD, which gives it a a one-percent advantage ahead of Olaf Scholz’s SPD (19%). CDU remains the most popular party with 28 percent. Right-wing AfD, an anti-immigration party that also rejects Brussels' sanctions policy, has experienced an unexpected surge in popularity in recent months, overtaking the Greens, another member of Mr Scholz’s three-way coalition, in mid-April.

The EU's migration package could help further improve AfD's position

The topic of migration has become much more important again, and when this topic is back on the agenda, AfD always surges in the polls,

the political scientist explained to Euractiv. Uwe Jun also pointed out that there is no majority among Germans in favor of the coalition government's liberal migration policies, adding that most are rather inclined to see a more restrictive position.

With this in mind, there is no question that the new migration package approved by the EU's interior ministers on Thursday - which imposes a mandatory migrant quota on member states - will serve to boost AfD's popularity even further. This is particularly true in light of the fact that, following the adoption of the package, the Green and Liberal members of Germany's ruling coalition expressed regret that the scheme of fast-track asylum procedures at the EU's external borders has remained. - Obviously, this is risky, because it could lead to the formation of larger camps at the borders, which creates a difficult situation from a human rights point of view," the MEP of the Social Democratic party said. The Greens were so displeased with the adopted package that some seven hundred of them wrote to the party leadership, threatening a revolution.

The new package also prescribes a compulsory solidarity mechanism, whereby member states can decide whether to take in a certain number of asylum seekers, or to finance their return to their countries of origin. Brussels has estimated this at around €22,000 (over HUF 8 million) per migrant.

Brussels is abusing its power. They want to transfer migrants into Hungary, forcibly.  This is unacceptable! They want to turn Hungary into an immigrant country by force

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban wrote, reacting to the decision.

Germany received 80 percent more asylum applications between January and March than at the same time last year. Viktor Marsai, research director of the Migration Research Institute, told our newspaper earlier that if the trends of the previous year were to continue, illegal migration to Europe could break new records this year.

Evolution of asylum applications submitted in EU member states, 2010-2022

The failure of the governing parties 

The rise of the AfD also indicates that Germans are far from satisfied with the performance of the so-called traffic-light coalition. The alliance of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals has been wracked by internal strife recently, with some polls suggesting that the governing parties no longer have a majority in terms of popularity.

The protest vote comes into play when a government fails to satisfy voters with its policies, and this is currently the public's perception of the so-called traffic-light coalition,

the political analyst opined. 

Cover photo: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrives for the opening session of the two-day European Union summit in Brussels, on 23 March 2023. (Photo: MTI/EPA/Stephanie Lecocq)