How long will the EU support Ukraine?

Hungary is monitoring the security and the rights of national minorities.

BELGIUM-EU-UKRAINE-SUMMIT-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY-CONFLICT-WAR Fotó: LUDOVIC MARIN

Ursula von der Leyen and the European Union have declared many times that it firmly stands with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people and will strongly support the country's economy, society, armed forces and rebuilding in the future. The question arises, however, for how long and at what cost we can stand with Ukraine. 

Since the outbreak of the war, EU institutions and member states have provided Ukraine with more than €77 billion in loans and non-refundable aid. This amount includes €38.3 billion in economic aid, €17 billion in support for refugees in the EU, €21.16 billion in military aid and €670 million under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. The EU has recently spent a huge amount of humanitarian aid, around €700 million, to provide Ukrainian civilians living in war-torn areas with medicines, medical supplies, basic foodstuffs and drinking water, and by financing the construct shelters.

By comparison, the European Union has an annual budget of €170-190 billion. It is clear that the EU is reacting relatively quickly in solidarity with Ukraine, deciding on new financial assistance and proposing additional forms of support within a short time.

Von der Leyen's European Commission has recently tabled a proposal to amend the EU's long-term budget for 2021-2027 to provide additional aid to Ukraine. That is, it would further fuel the ongoing war under the pretext of supporting Ukraine's modernization on the road to EU accession. According to the proposal, the European Commission would provide €50 billion in loans and grants to Ukraine. The problem is that at least that much money is currently missing from the EU budget, even with transfers between budget lines and all the financial tricks.

One might ask how the EU is going provide this sum in the middle of an economic deficit, but we already know that Brussels is infinitely resourceful when it comes to blackmailing member states. The European Commission would amend the budget by cutting cohesion funds earmarked for the bloc's development. It has also put forward a request for an extra EUR 65 billion to be paid by the member states, which is also objectionable because some member states, including Hungary, have not received the development and reconstruction funds to which they are entitled, with the Brussels bureaucracy citing rule of law problems or resorting to other forms of political blackmail.

European citizens are increasingly reluctant to accept the measures taken at the EU level to support Ukraine and the plans on giving further financial support. The issue is dividing the member states. Besides all the sympathy with and humanitarian aid to those living in the war-torn areas, many questions are rightly raised by EU citizens. How can we talk about supporting the reconstruction of Ukraine when the war is not even over yet? Why is it necessary to intervene with funds and arms supplies in an armed conflict outside the territory of the EU, and why do EU leaders want to go beyond the bloc's capacity to support the war of a non-member country, even at the cost of borrowing?

How can it be that EU funds for a non-member state are not subject to the bloc's laws and the rule of law in Ukraine is not examined? As long as questions such as these remain unanswered,  EU citizens will feel a deep sense of distrust towards EU decision-makers, which is clearly detrimental to the bloc's unity.

In addition, the news have recently come to light that the already high salaries of EU bureaucrats, including Ursula von der Leyen's, will be raised further. EU citizens have a hard time accepting these disingenuous steps while facing problems in making ends meet due to the increased energy prices.

The EU has adopted eleven sanctions packages in solidarity with Ukraine since February 2022. However, these have not been as successful as expected. With the latest package, Brussels would now sanction behavior that avoids the other sanctions.

Instead of breaking Russia, the sanctions policy triggered an energy crisis in Europe, which spilled over into other sectors of the economy, resulting in higher utility and food prices, higher interest rates on loans and runaway inflation, making life increasingly difficult for citizens. Yet, EU leaders have still not acknowledged the failure of the sanctions policy despite these facts.

Josep Borrell, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, likened sanctions to a slimming diet that only succeeds in the long run. Unfortunately, we have not seen any of it yet.

Support for Ukraine was again on the agenda at the European Council summit on 29-30 June. The body decided to increase the financial ceiling of the European Peace Facility by EUR 3.5 billion in order to continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine. Last autumn, Brussels set up a financial fund to boost the capacity of the Ukrainian armed forces and cynically named it the Peace Facility. Instead of calling for a ceasefire and taking steps to promote peace talks, the European Council has reiterated its commitment to stand by Ukraine until the end, "for as long as necessary."

Hungary sees solidarity with Ukraine differently. While it agrees to continue to provide all humanitarian assistance necessary to the people fleeing the war, it rejects the funding of arms transfers and the steps of pro-war EU leaders that could endanger the security of EU citizens and escalate the war. Hungary's position also remains unchanged  in that it cannot support giving Ukraine an EU candidate status without first receiving guarantees regarding the security and rights of the national minorities living in Ukraine.

The author is a senior analyst at the Center for Fundamental Rights.

Cover photo: Ukraine’s president (middle) at the EU summit (Photo: Europress/AFP)