Analyst: Millions of illegal immigrants could leave Africa

Millions of illegal migrants could set off for Europe because of the chaotic situation in Africa, an analyst at the Center for Fundamental Rights told Magyar Nemzet. The security policy advisor also explained why the smugglers and the illegal immigrants attempting to cross Hungary’s southern border are carrying weapons.

202200727 magyar szerb hatar migransok havran zoltan magyar nemzet Fotó: Havran Zoltán

They sent a message with the quota system

According to the security policy advisor, the old-new EU plan about the mandatory distribution of illegal migrants among member states will have a major impact on the actions of organized crime groups and the movement of illegal migrants. Eliminating organized criminal groups is one of the EU leadership's stated aims with the mandatory distribution and with the controlled legal migration routes, Jozsef Horvath pointed out. This would also appeal to illegal immigrants who would not have to pay thousands of euros to get to the other side of the Schengen border. 

The announcement of the quota system was a positive message to illegal immigrants and a negative one to organized crime.

The security policy advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights, expects a hot autumn because of migrants (Photo: Andras Eberling)

They are coming towards Hungary

According to the security policy advisor, there are two reasons why illegal migrants want to enter the EU through Hungary's border fence instead of heading for Croatia and Slovenia, where they could move freely: "One is that Austria has almost hermetically sealed its borders with Italy and Slovenia. From the Italian side, illegal immigrants could enter through the passes, but Austria can close those passes rather easily. France does the same, as do the Germany in the north. Geography makes it easier to close a border in the mountains than a one in the plains.

This is why Italy has become a kind of sack, the expert says. Masses of illegal migrants arrive by sea, but they are unable to continue their journey towards Western Europe. In addition, Italy has a much lower level of social services for migrants because of the overcrowding. 

“Meanwhile, tensions are running high in Africa. Analysts expect that the unstable situation in Africa, especially the looming civil war in Niger, could once again send millions of migrants to Europe,” Mr Horvath warned. It is likely that this mass could take the Balkan route and eventually reach Hungary, he said.

“Looking at the map, we can see that Niger, which is descending into chaos, has always been a sort of distribution center for migrants. Libya's southern border is the territory of warlords and tribes, and the Italian government has tried to reach an agreement with these tribal leaders to stop illegal migrants crossing Niger. But organized crime can promise more than the Italian government and the pressure at the Libyan border will be unbearable," said Mr Horvath, adding that there is no doubt that the Libyan border police will not be able to stop them. “A significant proportion of the migrants arriving in the Mediterranean will obviously want to reach Europe by the shortest route, that is, by sea. However, taking them to Europe by boats and NGO ships is already a serious logistical challenge. With millions of people, there will clearly be a shortage of vessels. So the masses could set off overland, bypassing the Mediterranean to the starting point of the Balkan route. Even if it is a longer journey, it is less risky than crossing the stormy sea in autumn," he said, outlining possible scenarios.

Migrants apprehended at Morahalom (Photo: Police.hu)

A difficult autumn ahead

“Not only will we not have a calm autumn, but I think Europe is facing a very tough period. With the European Union being so involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, pouring money, weapons and energy into it, there are far fewer resources to stop illegal immigration, and there is far less political will on the part of the EU to do so," the expert said.

If the situation in Niger and the Central African zone escalates, not just one or two million, but a much larger number of people could leave Africa, an influx that the European Union will not be able to handle in its current state.

Cover photo: Illegal migrants apprehended at the Hungarian border fence (Photo: Zoltan Havran)