How Long Can Ukrainians Hold Out?

If everything goes on as it looks now, Ukraine will not be able to continue the war after 2024, Balint Somkuti told Magyar Nemzet in a recent interview. We asked the researcher at the Geopolitical Workshop of Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) about the conclusions we can draw from the Russia-Ukraine war this past year and how the conflict may evolve this year.

Harkiv, 2023. december 31. Az ukrán állami sürgõsségi szolgálat által közreadott kép egy orosz rakétatámadásban megrongálódott lakóépületrõl Harkivban 2023. december 30-án. Elõzõ nap az orosz légierõ mintegy 110 rakétát lõtt ki az Ukrajna elleni egyik legnagyobb légitámadásában, az orosz határhoz közeli Harkivot több orosz rakéta találta el, a hatóságok szerint 26 ember megsebesült. MTI/AP/Ukrán sürgõsségi szolgálat Fotó: -

In recent days, we witnessed an escalation of Russian attacks on Ukraine. Do you think there could be a connection to the Belgorod attack? What might be Russia's objective?

Let's flip the narrative a bit. Technically, Russia's air campaign has been underway for some time, although it hasn't garnered much attention in the Western press. Russia's intense offensive has been ongoing since around mid-December, targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure with increasing effectiveness, including the country's electrical grid. The impact of these attacks prompted Ukraine's strike against Belgorod, specifically targeting the civilian population. The attack on Belgorod can be seen as Kyiv's response to successful Russian assaults. Subsequently, despite allegedly facing a depletion of missile stockpiles again, Russia decided to escalate its attacks.

What is the reason for the escalation in Russian attacks? Could it be related to the diminishing financial assistance and Western arms supplies? Or is it perhaps connected to the restructuring of the Russian army?

 I believe that, following last summer's successes in Ukraine, Russia's military plan remains essentially unchanged, continuing to operate according to the principles established at that time. General Sergei Surovikin withdrew Russian paratroopers from their untenable position beyond Kherson and shifted the defensive line to the other side of the Dnieper. Since then, it's evident that Russia's objective is to wear down various aspects of the Ukrainian state, be it the army, the economy, or the resistance of society. In essence, Russia's efforts are focused on exploiting the West's narrow-mindedness and short-term focus, aiming to force Ukraine and its supporter - the West - into a struggle where Moscow's resources and advantages prevail over those of the West. We hear countless stories on how the West's economy is so much bigger than Russia's, but this is completely irrelevant, because the West has not made any strides in the military-industrial field recently, apart from a few minor developments. The United States, for instance, is trying to increase the production of artillery ammunition and Europe has accelerated certain procurements, but apart from this, there is no significant rush or development on the scale that we have seen in Russia.

So basically, what we are seeing now is the result of the Russian strategy working, and that the West is getting tired of supporting Ukraine, financially, militarily, societally. The Russians are seeing this and are upping the pressure on Ukraine.

Whether this would have happened without the decline in support from the West is hard to say, but I think it would have. 

The pinpricks of otherwise truly painful incidents, such as the attack on Belgorod, the sinking of the Novocherkassk or the systematic attacks on Crimea, which forced the Russian fleet to withdraw, do not mean much. 

These are highly publicized and marketable successes, but they do not change the actual course of the war.

 Is it safe to say, then, that Russia's attrition strategy will continue in the future?

-  It is important to see that the Russians know exactly what their advantages and disadvantages are. Since they are still very much lagging behind in precision equipment, they are attacking the points of Ukrainian defense that the Ukrainians have to defend under all circumstances, but without the difficulties that, for example, mobile warfare would entail. So, in order to pound a defended point with artillery fire, you don't really need anything other than what was invented fifty or seventy years ago.

This is where the Russian advantage and artillery superiority really becomes evident. Taking into account their manpower and other efficiency considerations, they can systematically grind down Ukrainian resistance. That's all they do, that's basically their strategy, and they continue to do it with ruthless consistency.

What can we expect in 2024?

This trend will continue. The real question is, with Western support already showing a palpable diminishing tendency since the beginning of 2023, how long will enable Ukraine to continue its battle in defense of the homeland. What is worth bearing in mind is that the Ukrainian economy has been virtually destroyed by the war, so we can only talk about Ukraine fighting and defending itself to any degree, even in the medium term, as long as Western aid and support continues to be pumped in. From the moment that Western aid is drastically reduced - there are already indications that US aid may halt altogether, and that the European Union will not be able to provide the same amount of aid - the whole defense of Ukraine will be called into question.

I expect - according to the information available at the moment, if things continue as they currently look - that Ukraine will not be able to continue the war after 2024. It simply will not have the capacity to do so. It may run out of manpower or materiel or the determination, but above all else it simply will not have the money to.

According to the quote attributed to General Montecuccoli, three things are needed for war: money, money and money.

Cover photo: A residential building damaged in a Russian missile attack in Kharkov on December 30, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/Ukrainian Emergency Service)