How Long Can Ukrainians Hold Out?

If everything goes on as it looks now, Ukraine will not be able to continue the war after 2024, Balint Somkuti told Magyar Nemzet in a recent interview. We asked the researcher at the Geopolitical Workshop of Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) about the conclusions we can draw from the Russia-Ukraine war this past year and how the conflict may evolve this year.

Harkiv, 2023. december 31. Az ukrán állami sürgõsségi szolgálat által közreadott kép egy orosz rakétatámadásban megrongálódott lakóépületrõl Harkivban 2023. december 30-án. Elõzõ nap az orosz légierõ mintegy 110 rakétát lõtt ki az Ukrajna elleni egyik legnagyobb légitámadásában, az orosz határhoz közeli Harkivot több orosz rakéta találta el, a hatóságok szerint 26 ember megsebesült. MTI/AP/Ukrán sürgõsségi szolgálat Fotó: -

The pinpricks of otherwise truly painful incidents, such as the attack on Belgorod, the sinking of the Novocherkassk or the systematic attacks on Crimea, which forced the Russian fleet to withdraw, do not mean much. 

These are highly publicized and marketable successes, but they do not change the actual course of the war.

 Is it safe to say, then, that Russia's attrition strategy will continue in the future?

-  It is important to see that the Russians know exactly what their advantages and disadvantages are. Since they are still very much lagging behind in precision equipment, they are attacking the points of Ukrainian defense that the Ukrainians have to defend under all circumstances, but without the difficulties that, for example, mobile warfare would entail. So, in order to pound a defended point with artillery fire, you don't really need anything other than what was invented fifty or seventy years ago.

This is where the Russian advantage and artillery superiority really becomes evident. Taking into account their manpower and other efficiency considerations, they can systematically grind down Ukrainian resistance. That's all they do, that's basically their strategy, and they continue to do it with ruthless consistency.

What can we expect in 2024?

This trend will continue. The real question is, with Western support already showing a palpable diminishing tendency since the beginning of 2023, how long will enable Ukraine to continue its battle in defense of the homeland. What is worth bearing in mind is that the Ukrainian economy has been virtually destroyed by the war, so we can only talk about Ukraine fighting and defending itself to any degree, even in the medium term, as long as Western aid and support continues to be pumped in. From the moment that Western aid is drastically reduced - there are already indications that US aid may halt altogether, and that the European Union will not be able to provide the same amount of aid - the whole defense of Ukraine will be called into question.

I expect - according to the information available at the moment, if things continue as they currently look - that Ukraine will not be able to continue the war after 2024. It simply will not have the capacity to do so. It may run out of manpower or materiel or the determination, but above all else it simply will not have the money to.

According to the quote attributed to General Montecuccoli, three things are needed for war: money, money and money.

Cover photo: A residential building damaged in a Russian missile attack in Kharkov on December 30, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/Ukrainian Emergency Service)