PM Orban’s Peace Mission May Have Been Kyiv’s Last Chance

From a marginal liaison, PM Orban has turned into a dangerous "image politician" on the pages of leading Western newspapers.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Photo: Europress/AFP/JOHN THYS)

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent proposal for a Christmas ceasefire, relayed to both Moscow and Kyiv, provoked a similar wave of international backlash and scorn in the Western world as his earlier peace mission, in the summer. Predictably, the first voices to dismiss his efforts were advocates for the transatlantic pro-war apparatus, along with various commentators and political pundits, who informed Western Europe and the United States that such Hungarian peace initiatives are futile. According to them, Mr. Orban - perpetually grappling with “political isolation and irrelevance” - is merely trying to play the role of an unqualified intermediary between the two sides.

However, as more details of the Hungarian prime minister’s recent discussions emerged - it’s worth noting that Hungary currently holds the presidency of the European Union - both the international and the Ukrainian rhetoric shifted. Reports soon surfaced that Orban had not merely spoken with Russian officials but had spent an hour in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also made parallel efforts to advance the possibility of a ceasefire and prisoner exchanges with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been navigating a diplomatically constrained path since the results of this November’s U.S. presidential elections.

Thus, from a marginal liaison, PM Orban has turned into a dangerous "image politician" on the pages of leading Western newspapers, while Kyiv’s leadership - caught in the vacuum of the pro-war machinery - also adjusted its tone.

Following these discussions, it became clear that Ukraine’s leader had even refused to take a phone call initiated by Hungary on the subject. Instead, Zelensky retreated to social media, embarking on a diplomatic tirade. Among his contradictory statements, he notably remarked that “discussions about the war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot happen without Ukraine’s inclusion.”

Observers of efforts advocating for peace might rightly assume at this point that Ukraine, ostensibly interested in de-escalating the bloodshed, perhaps lacks sufficient clarity when it comes to the strategic playing field of geopolitics.

And although this assumption has drawn criticism in recent days, the Ukrainian foreign ministry’s latest statement - also attacking PM Orban’s ceasefire proposal - offers unambiguous support for it. As the statement declared: “We call on the Hungarian side to cease its immoral manipulations under the guise of peace and Christmas, and to refrain from unilateral engagements with the aggressor state, which undermine joint efforts to restore a just peace. The only obstacle to peace is Russia and its war-obsessed dictator. Ukraine strives for peace on its land like no other nation in the world."

Yet those who - in connection with this statement - question not just the Ukrainians sharpness of vision, but also their sincerity, are likely not far from the truth themselves.

Because, of course, there can be discussions and debates on the question of whether it was a wise decision from Kyiv to brush aside what was likely its last opportunity for a Christmas ceasefire before the inauguration of the U.S. president- who will inevitably become the de facto financier of Ukraine’s war budget. What is less credible, however, is the claim that Ukraine is striving for peace more than any other country in the world.

Let's recall the fact that, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there have been at least five documented attempts at peace talks. While the failure of these efforts cannot solely be blamed on Kyiv, it can be said without exaggeration that none of these negotiations collapsed due to Moscow’s outright refusal.

Furthermore, speaking of the possibility of a Christmas ceasefire, let us recall that just last January, it was President Zelensky himself who dismissed as “fake” a ceasefire proposal initiated by Putin for Orthodox Christmas. Citing Moscow’s intent “to use Christmas to halt Ukraine’s advance in the Donbas,” Ukraine's ostensibly peace-seeking president rejected the overture outright.

Taking into account PM Orban’s remarks this summer at Tusvanyos - that time is on the side of pro-peace politics - and Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 as the 47th President of the United States, a steadfast ally of Mr. Orban’s peace policy, it becomes clear that Kyiv’s diplomatic room for maneuver toward peace is rapidly shrinking. In this light, it is entirely possible that PM Orban’s Christmas ceasefire proposal was Kyiv’s last such opportunity for the foreseeable future.

The author is a senior analyst at the Szazadveg Foundation for Public Affairs