Gas Weapon, Discharged

The Ukraine–Russia gas crises have been ongoing for decades, closely tied to the increasingly strained relations between the two countries.

If it’s New Year’s, it’s not just roast pork and fireworks that arrive on schedule, but often another Ukraine–Russia gas crisis, too. Thankfully, not every year begins with one, but it happens frequently enough to cause regular disruptions for Europe.

For example, right now. Rest assured, however: the halt in Russian gas transit through Ukraine does not directly affect Hungary. Our storage facilities are prepared for winter, and Hungary can also procure Russian gas through the Balkan branch of the TurkStream pipeline. Indirectly, though, it affects Hungary just as it does many other countries. Another shake-up in the European energy market is in no one’s interest, particularly during the winter months – not even for those who might think otherwise. 

When Russian energy giant Gazprom stopped deliveries through Ukraine to Moldova, especially to in its breakaway region, because Kyiv had failed to renew the transit agreement, the move caused palpable disruptions. In response, our old "pal," Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski, gleefully called this a “great victory.”

So in essence, the foreign minister of Poland, who assumed the rotating EU presidency yesterday, is celebrating - even if indirectly - that people in Eastern Europe’s poorest regions are now freezing in their homes.

For him, it is clearly more important to believe that this reduces Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. Meanwhile, Ukraine is also losing out on transit fees, depriving itself of up to $1 billion annually, all while constantly seeking aid from the U.S. and Europe.

This is nothing new: energy is a weapon. According to the old theatre-hand’s adage, if a gun is placed on stage, it will inevitably be fired during the performance. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are using their “gas weapons” in this way. Transit transport is akin to an easement in property law: it is perfectly suited to heightening tensions, especially when the parties are already on bad terms with each other.

The Ukrainian–Russian gas crises have spanned decades, linked to the two countries' increasingly fraught relationship - exacerbated by their war since 2022. Among the major players, alongside politicians and corporate executives, shady figures like “Uncle Seva” (Semion Mogilevich), well-known even in Hungary, have frequently appeared. Gazprom’s recent response to Ukraine’s moves was expected; according to insider sources cited by Reuters, the company has already signaled plans to write Ukraine off entirely by 2025. 

Sixteen years ago, during Hungarian ex-PM Gyurcsany's government, a gas dispute caused supply disruptions in Hungary until the issue was resolved. Since 2010, much has been done to enhance European energy security, and we’ve learned to embrace the term “diversification” – as ugly as it may sound. This means acquiring alternative energy sources and establishing new supply routes, such as TurkStream. Naturally, the Americans would prefer everyone to buy their liquefied natural gas (at a high price!), but for a landlocked Central European country like ours, that’s an even worse proposition than average.

The U.S. has played a significant role in stirring up the European energy market. Even the Turkish supply route had to be salvaged recently after Washington added Gazprom’s bank to its sanctions list. (And, of course, the Nord Stream pipeline didn’t just blow up by itself.)

All the heightened New Year’s statements seem to fit into the fanatical, pro-war rhetoric of recent times. While Mr. Sikorski revels in the situation, Slovakia’s prime minister threatens Kyiv with a power blockade, and Moldova’s pro-Western president lambasts Moscow. We hardly needed another reason to advocate for a swift end to the Ukraine war, but now we have one: fresh and pressing, for 2025.