While EU leaders talk about merit-based accession for Western Balkan countries, Ukraine could be admitted through an accelerated process. However, this poses serious risks for all parties involved.
(Photo: Anadolu via AFP)
If accession is not merit-based, many countries that have long worked toward EU membership will feel the EU is not about rules. If they—and even member states—perceive the EU as prioritizing sympathies and ideologies over rules, this would undermine the EU itself,
cautioned Attila Demko, program director of the John Lukacs Institute at the Ludovika University of Public Service.
If the EU repeatedly overrides its own rules, the end result will be the weakening of the European Union, as everyone will assume 'there are no real rules here',
he added.
"What will the countries think that have faithfully followed the path laid out by Brussels yet haven't achieved membership?" the expert raised the question.
Look at Albania! It’s not just a matter of timelines. Albania is the best example of a country that has aligned one hundred percent with Western policies in every respect over the past decades—yet it’s still not in the EU,
he noted, adding that North Macedonia could also be mentioned as a similar case.
There are already many complaints that the Balkans are not a priority for the EU, and these grievances would only grow significantly,
he emphasized.
A fast-tracked EU accession is fundamentally dangerous also for Ukraine, Attila Demko pointed out.
If Ukraine joins without reaching an adequate level of development, the country will be emptied out,
he warned. Millions of people will not return to the country, and even more will leave, as EU membership would make emigration easier. On top of that, large Ukrainian communities already exist in most European countries.
The expert recalled Romania's example: five million people left the country after accession. In Ukraine's case, this number could be several times higher, reaching such a scale that Ukraine's population could drop to around twenty million or even lower.
So this isn’t just about European taxpayers’ money, but about Ukraine paying a terrible price if it's not adequately prepared,
he pointed out.
Primarily a demographic price, but also an economic one, as Ukrainian companies would struggle to compete in the European market when it comes to industrial goods.
Essentially, Ukraine could become a sparsely populated agricultural country if it enters the EU too early and unprepared,
Attila Demko summarized.
As he noted, Hungary and other former acceding states entered the European Union at a much higher level of development compared to the EU average than what Ukraine could achieve in five or even ten years.
And this carries dangers not only for the European Union but also for the acceding country,
he highlighted.
Of course, there could be specific derogations for Ukraine, which would temporarily exclude Ukrainian workers from the labor markets of certain EU member states — as was the case with Hungarians in 2004. However, this would at best only delay the outflow, and "given how emotional the issue of Ukraine is now, many countries would be unable to say 'no' to Ukrainian labor."
The key is to proceed calmly and thoughtfully in this process, and not everyone in the EU is calm or thoughtful in this matter. Yet, as I said, this isn’t just about European interests — it's also about Ukraine's interests, to ensure the accession is appropriate and not rushed. First, the war must end,
the expert said.
The European Union cannot admit a country that doesn’t have stable borders,
he emphasized, adding that a major question is whether a stable border can ever be established if Ukraine does not give up the territories occupied by Russia.
This doesn’t mean Ukraine has no right to join. That’s not the case at all — they do have the right. But only once these issues have been settled,
he underlined.
He pointed out that Cyprus, for example, only gained EU membership in 2004 — thirty years after the war in 1974. "And in that case, it wasn’t Russia we were facing, but the so-called Republic of Northern Cyprus, supported by Turkey."
These are very serious geopolitical and security issues that must be resolved, and it’s highly unlikely they can be resolved quickly,
Attila Demko said in conclusion.
Cover photo: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Photo: AFP)
