Iran Is Far From as Unified as It Appears

While the Shiite theocracy may appear firmly in control in Iran, an increasing number of studies and social indicators suggest that the country’s internal diversity — ethnic, religious, and political — contains tensions that could, over time, undermine the regime’s stability. The numbers suggest Iran’s political leadership has reason to be afraid.

Poster in Tehran (Photo: AFP)

Islamic Republic Not Ethnically Unified, Either

Roughly 85 million people live in the Islamic Republic. While more than half of Iran’s population is of Persian ethnicity, the other half belongs to various minority groups. The largest among these are the Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Baluchis, Turkmen, and Lur peoples. According to a summary by Britannica, most of these minorities are well integrated into Iranian society. However, some groups—such as the Kurds and the Baluchis—have expressed historical demands for autonomy and are particularly sensitive to state assimilation efforts. Persian is the official language, but Iran is home to a dozen others—from Azeri to Kurdish, Turkmen, and Arabic. This linguistic diversity can sometimes lead to political and cultural tensions, especially during periods of government centralization. Linguistic and ethnic separation, therefore, reflects not only cultural differences, but also distinct identities.

Urban Youth and the Diaspora as Destabilizing Forces

Religious alienation is particularly pronounced among the youth, urban dwellers, and the better-educated—precisely the segments of society that are expected to form the country's future elite. According to the GAMAAN survey, the decline in religiosity is most evident among the 20–40 age group, particularly those living in major cities, where global culture, the internet, and foreign influences are strongest.

These segments no longer necessarily see Islamic law as the natural framework for their lives. A substantial portion of them rejects compulsory religious rules, such as wearing the hijab or observing mandatory prayer.

At the same time, a diaspora numbering in the millions lives abroad — especially in the United States, Canada, and Western Europe — where anti-regime sentiment is also strong. While their political activity and attitudes toward the regime vary, segments of the diaspora—particularly intellectuals, human rights advocates, artists, and political refugees—actively shape international public opinion, influence Western political discourse, and even impact sanction policies. Together, the young, urbanized, and increasingly globalized sectors of Iranian society, along with the diaspora socialized to Western norms, offer an alternative vision of Iran: one that is more secular, open, and decentralized, in contrast to the Islamic Republic’s theocratic model.

Public Discontent With the Ayatollahs’ Regime

Nationwide protests erupted in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who was arrested by the morality police for allegedly wearing her headscarf “improperly.” Her death mobilized broad swaths of Iranian society. A GAMAAN survey about the 2022 protests provides a stark insight into how younger generations and urban residents relate to the Iranian regime.

According to the study, 81 percent of respondents supported the 2022 protests, and 67 percent said the goal was not reform but a complete overhaul of the system.

Support was especially high among 20–29-year-olds and women, showing that younger segments of society are no longer just passively alienated from the regime but are also prepared to take active steps against it. This shift in attitude signals a deeper social transformation that could eventually have political consequences—especially if these domestic movements receive reinforcement and international support from the diaspora.

A Political Alternative Exists

Iran’s current theocratic system was established following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when broad segments of the population — under the leadership of the Shiite clergy — overthrew the secular, pro-Western rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The result was the founding of the Islamic Republic, where ultimate authority resides with religious leaders.

Yet the former royal family still exists, and the Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi — currently the heir to the Iranian throne — remains active in the diaspora’s political life.

Reza Pahlavi has called for the removal of the religious dictatorship and the creation of a secular, democratic Iran. Because of his pro-Western views and messages advocating constitutional reform, many opposition figures and foreign observers regard him as a potential alternative to the current regime.

Cover photo: Poster in Tehran (Photo: AFP)