Ukrainian Roulette in Brussels' Style

Anyone who continues to choose war with Russia over peace is committing an act of betrayal!

European Council President Antonio Costa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Euopean Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (Souce: AFP)

What the Romans didn't know, it's not really worth figuring out now, the saying goes. And there's a lot of truth in that. For example, they knew that legions returning from the provinces should not be allowed to set foot in Italy immediately. They were quarantined  for weeks on Dalmatian islands to ensure the soldiers weren't carrying any dangerous infections. Roman generals were also forbidden from crossing the Rubicon River with their armies. This way, there was no need to fear that the soldiers would ravage the peninsula, nor did the generals threaten the Roman Republic. However, Julius Caesar took a bold step and crossed the tiny river with his legions, then marched into Rome. "The die is cast," he is said to have remarked.

I fear that most politicians in Brussels are not very familiar with Roman history. At least, that is what their latest idea suggests. It turns out that a significant proportion of the population in Western countries no longer wants to fight because they are physically or mentally incapable. Therefore,

the Ukrainians have been singled out for the continuation of the hybrid war with Russia. Since Ukraine lacks the money, weapons, and ammunition to win the war, EU leaders have offered Kyiv a deal: President Zelensky and his team should build a nearly one-million-strong army, which the West will finance. They believe this combination will bring about Russia’s defeat.

What the United States couldn’t achieve over the past three years will supposedly now succeed under the EU flag. It’s a cynical deal: Ukrainian lives and EU taxpayers’ money. Meanwhile, Zelensky and his inner circle can gain more time in power and keep their corrupt system running. Both sides want the same thing—war at any cost.

The only "minor" problem with this is that Brussels leaders refuse to consider the consequences of this military adventure. First of all, there is no evidence to support their basic assumption that the Russians, sooner or later, want to attack the West. Instead of seeking mutually beneficial deals – as is emerging from the Russia-U.S. talks – Europe ignores both the example and the price it must pay for this war.

Equipping, arming, and providing ammunition and other supplies for one million Ukrainian soldiers would cost an incalculable amount of money. As would providing food and healthcare, and paying their salaries. Then comes the next question:

how long will the EU finance this huge army? Five or ten years, maybe longer? And how much will the hungry Ukrainian corruption system swallow, and – heaven forbid – how much will end up in the pockets of Brussels officials? Because until now, no one monitored whether money, weapons, ammunition, or aid reached their destination. Clearly not out of forgetfulness.

Let’s assume that, eventually, this senseless war ends—perhaps because the Ukrainians realize they’ve been cruelly deceived and exploited, or because it turns out Russia never had plans to attack the West after all. Or maybe the EU simply runs out of money. Then we’d have real trouble. What will happen to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers suddenly left without income or supplies? No one has dared to model that scenario, or think it through. But to me, the answer is obvious:

a large number of them will head West, especially if Ukraine has by then been fast-tracked into the EU. Who will stop these soldiers? I fear the question is rhetorical. These disillusioned, hopeless men will likely cling to their weapons. Disarming them without force will be next to impossible. 

Especially since many will have trained in Western military camps, gotten a taste of life in the West, and will want the same for themselves and their families. Hundreds of thousands of ronin.

At that point, the fear won't be about Russia invading Europe. No, in Moscow, they’ll sit back with a cup of coffee while Ukrainians deliver what the West has long feared. Russia might even amplify the Ukrainians’ efforts through its propaganda, using them to finally ruin the wealthy Western world.

I know many will say this is a dark, apocalyptic prediction. May heaven prove me wrong. But this insane plan for a million-strong Ukrainian army offers nothing good. What less tragic outcome could it have? Western money and support dries up, the Ukrainian military crumbles, and the state collapses completely. Then "only" hundreds of thousands of civilian refugees head West. Housing, supplying, and integrating them would pose a huge challenge for the EU. We’ve seen what illegal migration alone has done to our continent.

If the European Union doesn’t abandon this crazy and dangerous plan, the consequences will be unimaginable—for every nation and for our entire civilization. Anyone who continues to choose war with Russia over peace is committing an act of betrayal! We cannot entrust our security to Ukrainian mercenaries, because that carries at least as much risk as this senseless war.

To be stylish, this would be Ukrainian roulette, with pro-war EU leaders holding the loaded gun to all our heads without even asking our opinion. That’s why they should read Roman history thoroughly and learn from it before casting the die.

The author is the director of the  Sovereignty Protection Research Institute