Washington reproaches Zelensky

The battle of Belgorod earlier this week could open a new chapter in the Russia-Ukraine war. Experts say it's the first time that forces allied with Ukraine have launched a cross-border offensive against Russian targets. According to a statement from the defense ministry in Moscow, the Russian army has eliminated Ukrainian nationalists who had infiltrated the Belgorod region, but the situation remains tense. Zoltán Koskovics, geopolitical analyst at the Center for Fundamental Rights, has shared his thoughts with our newspaper on whether the United States is starting to lose control over Kyiv.

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Asked whether the battle of Belgorod is a clear sign that Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer controlled by the United States and that the Ukrainian president has become a maverick, the geopolitical expert explained that

Belgorod was a psychological military operation designed to divert public attention, especially in Ukraine and Russia, from the fall of Bakhmut, and it did fulfill this function.

This, he believes, has highlighted that Ukraine's military leaders are not fully committed to the political leadership's promise not to use Western military technology provided to them within Russia's internationally recognized borders. However, he also stressed that

this unfortunate escalation - which was intended to have a purely communicative impact - is once again taking us further away from peace. Even though Ukraine, too, has suffered huge losses, its economy has been adversely affected by the conflict and it would be in its vital interest to at least have a ceasefire.

Zoltan Koskovics called it regrettable that the pro-war international public opinion, including the Hungarian left-wing press, was so keen on celebrating the "conquest of Belgorod".

One cannot dispute the claims that Ukraine would be unable to continue its struggle without the strong support of the United States and that, accordingly, it is unthinkable for the country to be run by people who could have a serious dispute with the US , the analyst has said, adding that

recent leaks in the US press that have proved embarrassing for President Zelensky suggest that the Biden administration is trying to send him a message: he needs to take Washington's priorities more into account. I am thinking about a report in The Washington Post that the Ukrainian president was about to blow up the Druzhba (Friendship) oil pipeline, or the latest intel released by the New York Times, suggesting that it's indeed the Ukrainians who were behind the drone attack on the Kremlin, even despite Kyiv's denial.

Nevertheless, as the analyst pointed out, the United States has indicated to its European allies that if they were to hand over their own F-16s to Kyiv, Washington would raise no objections. The communication circus surrounding the US fighter jets, in his view, is reminiscent of the theatrical scenes that have unfolded over the modern tanks dispatched by the West, but whether the Ukrainians can really get US warplanes will ultimately be determined by how effective they are in their employment of Leopard tanks and other armored Western vehicles that they already have, he added.

In other words: the fate of the F-16s will be determined by the success or failure of the current Ukrainian offensive,

– the expert said. 

Responding to our question on whether it would really take months to deploy the F-16 fighter jets in an actual battle, the analyst at the Centre for Fundamental Rights explained that the retraining of Ukrainian pilots for Western aircraft is a lengthier process. It is also possible, he added, that Ukraine - because of its losses - does not have an abundance of pilots already trained on Russian-type aircraft, so there may be some who will practically start from scratch. At the same time, we cannot be sure that the training will only commence now. As an example, he cited British PM Rishi Sunak's announcement in the winter that the Royal  Air Force would begin the training of Ukrainian pilots, adding that the process, hidden from public view, could well be underway since then. In order for Ukraine to obtain these fighter jets at all, they must fist demonstrate that they can use the armored vehicles they've already received effectively, he pointed out.

According to the expert, the concern that the cost of the F-16s at well over ten million dollars would be too high in total for America's dwindling military budget is unjustified, not least because the F16 fleets are considered obsolete, and it is unclear what their fate should be. He stressed that the first such aircraft took to the skies almost exactly half a century ago, therefore the type is well worth replacing. This, he said, could make the decision to hand over these planes to Ukraine easier for all of their owners, adding, however, that it also calls into question the usefulness of this move.

There are serious questions regarding what the F-16s can achieve against Russia's air defense. These aircraft were hardly used during the US-led bombing campaign against Syria, presumably fearing that they would have been easy prey for the Arab state's Russian air defense mechanism,

– said geopolitical analyst Zoltan Koskovics, concluding his response sent to our paper.

Cover photo: US President Joe Biden with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky (Source: Susan Walsh / POOL / AFP)