High Stakes Elections in Serbia: Will They Turn?

Parliamentary and provincial elections will be held in Serbia on December 17, as well as locally in 65 municipalities. This will be the fifth early election in the country in the 11 years since the center-right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) came to power in 2012. Why did our southern neighbors decide to have them now? What is at stake and what outcome is likely? Can the Alliance of Hungarians in Vojvodina (VMSZ) tip the scales in the formation of the government? Magyar Nemzet asked Erik Palusek, from the Directorate General for International Affairs at Hungary's University of Public Service.

Based on opinion polls and public sentiment, a change of government in Serbia is unlikely today. It is also not by accident that the majority ruling party has timed the elections for now. "The Alliance of Hungarians in Vojvodina (VMSZ) still has a good chance of forming a parliamentary group and retaining its role in the government," Erik Palusek, a fellow at the Directorate General for International Affairs at the University of Public Service, told Magyar Nemzet when asked about Sunday's elections in Serbia.

It is no coincidence that Aleksandar Vucic timed the elections in Serbia for now, according to the researcher,  (Photo: MTI/EPA/Andrej Cukic)

As we wrote earlier, elections in Serbia on December 17 include national parliamentary, provincial and in 65 municipalities. This year will be the 14th parliamentary election since the fall of socialism in the country of nearly seven million people. Ten of the 14 occasions have been early political power struggles, making the average parliamentary term in Serbia just two years and three months instead of the official four years.

This will be the fifth snap election in the country in the 11 years since the center-right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) came to power in 2012. SNS which has so far governed together with the Socialist Party of Serbia and a few other smaller parties and several minority organizations, including the Alliance of Hungarians in Vojvodina, has decided to hold a series of extraordinary elections despite having a stable majority to govern the country.

Why is Serbia voting now?

"President Aleksandar Vucic has repeatedly stated that he called the early elections under pressure from the Serbian opposition. However, looking behind the scenes, we can see that there were tactical reasons for this. The elections were called at a time when it looked as if the current government might be able to win the showdown, so they did not wait until the end of the term. The international environment today is very uncertain and in rapid flux, which has an impact on the domestic politics of certain individual states," the researcher explained in response to our question. According to the poll published by Ipsos on Thursday, 

Aleksandar Vucic's 'Serbia must not stop' list is expected to receive 44.6 percent of the vote on Sunday, the Socialist Party of Serbia 8.7 percent and the VMSZ nearly 1.5 percent. 

Vucic's challenger, the opposition coalition Serbia Against Violence (SPN), was polling at 23.6 percent two days before the elections, a significant drop from the nearly 40 percent support it had in the summer. 

The late spring wave of violence and the resulting protests moved a lot of people, the whole country was tuned in. This did not benefit Vucic's popularity at the time.

"It seems they have managed to bounce back since. This is also thanks to the first tranches of the previously announced raises in pay and pensions starting to be paid out. One should also keep in mind that the SNS has over 700 000 members in a country with a total population of around 6.5 million. With such an extensive and well-organised network, they can reasonably well build themselves up for the elections," said Erik Palusek. He added that the SNS and the Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) had made it clear before the elections that they would continue to cooperate after the elections.

Election stakes in Serbia

The researcher from the National University of Public Service said that the coalition led by Aleksandar Vucic has focused its campaign on the investments made in the past years and just recently, as well as those coming down the pike and the predicted rise in living standards (an average salary of €1400 and an average pension of €650 in the coming years). The name choice for the coalition (Serbia must not stop) shortly before the campaign, was also deliberate, as are 

some familiar faces, the best known being President Vucic himself.

"He is largely the person that progressive voters vote for, they trust him and not necessarily for his election manifesto. The Serbian opposition does not yet have such decisive, well-constructed, charismatic characters within its ranks, and is still trying to build itself up. It is true that the opposition has not performed very strongly in the country in the past years."

They are perhaps best situated in Belgrade to pose a bit of a challenge to governing parties,

explained the researcher. He noted that Serbia Against Violence (SNP) also supports along with Vucic and company the European integration of the country. "Like the ruling parties, they are European-oriented, but in substance they are more focused on change. They communicate about ending corruption, increasing the transparency of government and strengthening democratic institutions," said Erik Palusek. The relative consensus among the parties in favor of EU integration is also noteworthy, as a majority of the the Serbian population is against accession. 

 

The far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS) tried to ride this tide by campaigning for accession to BRICS, but according to polls published on Thursday, they will not even reach the three percent threshold for representation parliament. 

The Kosovo issue was also a campaign point, but neither party is willing to give it up, the researcher said, adding that paradoxically, the recognition of Kosovo's independence is a condition for EU integration. "Anyone recognizing Kosovo's independence, likely risks committing political suicide, because the idea is not very popular within the population," he said.

What are VMSZ's?

Palusek said that the Alliance of Hungarians in Vojvodina would like to progress on the path of European integration, to maintain and further develop the good relations between Serbia and Hungary, and to continue the wave of investments started in recent years. The researcher explained,

it is important for VMSZ to achieve the five parliamentary seats needed to form a parliamentary group.

The party has a good chance of hitting this mark again, as it can mobilize well, has a proportionally large number of members, at over 10,000. "VMSZ is the only ethnic Hungarian party running in the elections, and a massive part of the Hungarian community will vote for them. The former president of VMSZ, Istvan Pasztor, passed away recently. Now his son, Balint Pasztor, is acting president, carrying on the line his father had taken."

Only the election results will reveal how this affected ethnic Hungarian voters and the Hungarian vote, but perhaps it will have the effect of rallying voters behind VMSZ.

Every vote does count for the party, the researcher noted, as they previously fell short of a sixth mandate by only 65 votes, which would have given them a more stable position in the Serbian government. Moreover, the number of seats for the VMSZ depends heavily on overall Serbian voter turnout numbers.

Cover photo: Illustration (Photo: MTI/AP/Darko Vojinovic)