Ukraine Is Unfit for EU Membership

Ukraine’s EU accession is subject to six general criteria, based on which the European Commission set seven specific steps for the country to complete in 2022. However, these objectives have either not been met or have only been partially implemented in Ukraine, according to an analysis by the Hungarian Tényellenőr (Fact Checker) group.

Ukrainian and European Union flags (Photo: AFP)

Significant setbacks have been observed in Ukraine’s legislative efforts to combat corruption and money laundering, as well as in the implementation of rule-of-law reforms, according to the Hungarian Tényellenőr (Fact Checker) group.

Ukraine’s EU accession could pose a serious threat (Photo: AFP)

The feasibility of Ukraine’s economic integration is also questionable. Due to the ongoing war and historically weak economic indicators that have persisted since the country’s independence, Ukraine remains far from economic convergence with the EU.

Public debt stands at 95 percent, and even the most optimistic estimates suggest that reconstruction costs would entirely consume three years’ worth of Ukraine’s GDP.

Furthermore, in January, Ukraine's currency plummeted to a historic low against the dollar.

Despite these facts, the President of the European Commission, the leader of the European People’s Party (the largest group in the European Parliament), and several heads of state have clearly expressed their support for Ukraine’s integration and further financial aid.

However, following last Thursday’s EU summit, Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced his intention to initiate a consultative vote regarding Ukraine’s EU accession.

Ukraine must meet numerous requirements for EU membership

Countries seeking EU membership must fulfill a range of requirements. These accession criteria—also known as the Copenhagen Criteria—were established at the European Council’s 1993 Copenhagen summit and reaffirmed at its 1995 Madrid meeting.

On February 24, Marta Kos, the EU Commissioner for Enlargement, declared that the European Commission is committed to concluding Ukraine’s accession process within four to five years, a stance echoed by EC President Ursula von der Leyen. Such an ambitious plan demands substantial efforts from both Ukraine and the EU, particularly in the area of the rule of law. If 

 Ukraine fails to implement deep judicial reforms, it risks remaining a perpetual "candidate" or joining the EU unprepared, which would be detrimental to both parties and individual member states.

Tényellenőr (Fact Checker) examined Ukraine’s ability to meet the specific conditions of accession and whether, post-accession, it has a realistic chance of monetary integration.

Rule-of-law reforms

As part of its integration efforts, the Ukrainian government developed a so-called Reform Roadmap to guide judicial reforms. However, a report by the organization Dejure, which participated in evaluating the program, raises concerns. Instead of introducing profound changes, the current version of the plan contains superficial measures that fail to address the Ukrainian justice system’s decades-long issues.

Judicial reform and corruption 

The Ukrainian government is not just progressing slowly but, in some cases, is even rolling back reforms. A recent example is a law passed by the Ukrainian parliament as part of EU legal harmonization, which allows for prison sentences of up to eight years for the unauthorized disclosure of information from state registries—a provision that poses a serious threat to transparency. Additionally, judicial reform is not advancing adequately. In the spring of 2023, Ukraine’s Supreme Court chief justice was arrested on corruption charges, and the government is now moving to bring the Integrity Council—which is responsible for overseeing the independence and integrity of judges—under its direct control through legislative amendments, Tényellenőr reports.

Protection of minority rights

Before discussing the ongoing debate over minority language rights, including the use of Hungarian, it is worth noting that in 2012, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signed a language law that officially permitted bilingualism—allowing certain minority languages to be used alongside the state language in administrative regions where minorities constituted at least 10 percent of the population.

According to the language law, Ukrainian remained the official language of the country, but minorities were officially allowed to use their native language if they made up at least 10 percent of the population within an administrative unit.

Anti-oligarchy laws

In 2021, Ukraine adopted a new anti-oligarchy law, which established the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) and granted it the authority to create a public registry listing oligarchs. The law also defined the criteria for classifying individuals as oligarchs.

While the legislation aims to restrict oligarchic influence, its implementation has been suspended pending review by the Venice Commission.

The law is particularly significant in Ukraine, because oligarchy exists in the form of competing clans, which created systemic economic and social problems. The ongoing power struggles among these clans lead to unpredictable election outcomes, fostering both political and economic corruption—a situation that even the war has failed to eliminate.

One of President Zelensky’s biggest supporters and one of Ukraine’s most influential oligarchs, Ihor Kolomoisky, was arrested in 2023.

The businessman is under investigation for several offenses, including allegations that between 2013 and 2020, he laundered half a billion hryvnias (approximately $130 million) through banks under his control and transferred the money abroad.

President Zelensky himself has also been linked to a similar scandal.

The 2021 Pandora Papers revealed that the Ukrainian president may have— or still does—control an offshore account, which he transferred to a friend just weeks before his election victory. This account was not disclosed in his financial declarations. An investigative report by The Guardian suggested that Zelensky was involved in a complex offshore network where he and his former film industry colleagues had concealed funds.

Anti-money laundering laws

In 2017, an analysis by Moneywall found that Ukraine faces significant money laundering risks due to corruption and illicit economic activities such as shell companies, tax evasion, and fraud. The study highlighted, and the previously mentioned oligarchic activities confirm, that money laundering methods in Ukraine commonly involve so-called “conversion centers,” which divert funds from the formal economy into the shadow economy and facilitate the cashing out and overseas transfer of illicit revenues.

Combating money laundering was one of the conditions for EU accession, but even the previously cited report recommended further reforms.

Consultative vote on Ukraine's EU accession

A consultative vote may be held on Ukraine’s accession, allowing Hungarian citizens to assess the effectiveness of the above-mentioned reforms within Ukrainian legislation over the past years. Tényellenőr's analysis highlights that while Ukraine has achieved partial success in aligning with EU laws, these efforts remain far from meeting the milestones and benchmarks set as prerequisites for accession.

Cover photo: Ukrainian and European Union flags (Photo: AFP)