Hungary would face serious challenges with Ukraine's accession to the European Union, as it would have a catastrophic impact on both Hungarian and EU agriculture, jeopardize utility cost reductions, and place a significant burden on the social and healthcare systems. On top of these, Ukrainian organized crime would almost certainly gain a foothold in Hungary.
Ukraine is essentially a mafia state. In terms of crime, it ranks among the worst in Europe and could pose serious security risks if it became an EU member.
Organized crime brings with it arms and drug trafficking, prostitution, human trafficking, and cybercrime. Ukraine has long been a key transit country in the heroin trade and is also recognized as a major cannabis producer. It is considered both a source, transit, and destination country for human trafficking, while cybercrime is also widespread within its borders.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also spoken about the dangers of the underworld, noting that we are talking about a heavily armed country, and Ukraine is not known for its public safety. Supporting its accession would involve risks that cannot be responsibly taken under current conditions.
It is also worth noting that Ukrainian organized crime is not a new phenomenon. It existed well before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and has only expanded since then.
Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine ranked 34th out of 193 countries in the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GITOC) index, and third worst in Europe.
It’s no surprise that its cross-border drug and arms smuggling network is considered one of the strongest in the world.
Drug trafficking is booming
According to a 2024 report, Ukraine's synthetic drug use and distribution score rose by a record 4.5 points in just two years, while the average across Europe rose by only 0.4 points in the same period. The Drug Research Institute (DKI) says this jump is significant not only regionally but globally, and it highlights the serious structural transformations occurring in the shadow of war.
As is well known, Ukraine was already one of the largest drug distribution centers in Eastern Europe before the war. It served as a transit route for heroin from Afghanistan, supplementing routes through the Balkans and the Caucasus. Prior to the war, it had the fourth-highest heroin seizure rate in Europe. Cocaine from South America flowed into the country via the Black Sea.
Local production of amphetamine derivatives has also been increasing. In 2020, authorities dismantled 67 illegal labs—more than in any other country across the world.
It is also noteworthy that Ukraine ranks second in Europe in terms of illegal cigarette production and trafficking. Moreover, a year ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law legalizing the medical use of cannabis. From Hungary's perspective, it is also important to know what regulations are in place in our eastern neighbor regarding marijuana. According to experts, if large quantities of cannabis are smuggled across the border, this could eventually have an impact on Hungary, especially if the Hungarian healthcare system has to treat addicts later on.
Imported brothels
Beyond drug trafficking, Ukrainian organized crime has long been involved in prostitution. As early as 2012, Ukraine was referred to as "Europe’s largest brothel." Since the war began, countless sex workers and the criminal gangs managing them have flooded Europe. While Ukraine claims to be fighting prostitution, the reality is different: the women receive protection from the police. That may sound reassuring, but the truth is that
high-ranking police officers were involved in operating a criminal organization that exploited vulnerable women aged 18 to 30 as prostitutes, and also worked to recruit new girls for escort and sex work.
According to reports, this network operated throughout Ukraine and even sent women abroad.
Arms trafficking could explode
A major concern is the fate of the weapons distributed and subsequently lost in Ukraine, which has been at war for more than three years. Experts believe that a staggering number of weapons and ammunition—lost in battle, abandoned, stolen, or stockpiled by civilians—could end up on the black market. As is known,
during the first days of the war, more than 25,000 automatic weapons and about ten million rounds of ammunition were distributed to civilians to defend the country.
Since then, new arms shipments have continuously arrived both through government procurement and foreign aid, which can further fuel illegal arms trade. If Ukraine becomes an EU member, black market weapons could easily appear on the streets of European cities—near schools and playgrounds, even.
Experts warn that the increased volume of weapons could also affect the number of violent crimes, accidental shootings, and suicides.
It’s also worth mentioning that Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently emphasized the issue of cybercrime flourishing in Ukraine. So much so that Hungarian families have reportedly been defrauded of over eight billion forints
