As the Nezopont Institute explained in its Tuesday statement, it applied three methods to classify the electoral classify the electoral districts. In addition to analyzing historical election results and national list data—commonly used in mandate calculators—the institute conducted independent surveys in 30 districts in 2026. Of course, the classification of each district is not final, as local issues may influence historical voting trends, and the dynamics of the race could have shifted since the surveys were conducted. Despite methodological limitations, the mandate projection is still suitable for predicting the most likely winners in each district.
Based on Nézőpont's estimate, it is unlikely that government party candidates will secure first place in Budapest districts. Of the 14 districts in Pest County, Fidesz victories are expected in only six. The only independent, yet Tisza-aligned, candidate likely to secure victory is Akos Hadhazy in Budapest’s 6th constituency, Zuglo.
Since Fidesz enjoys stronger support in rural areas while the Tisza Party is stronger in cities, it is unsurprising that government candidates are expected to dominate districts primarily made up of small towns and villages. Conversely, Tisza Party candidates are more competitive in parts of Miskolc, Debrecen, Szeged, Pecs, and in areas of Nyiregyhaza and Gyor.
Fidesz victories are anticipated in all districts of Bekes, Heves, Komarom-Esztergom, Nograd, Tolna, Vas, and Zala counties.
In Győr-Moson-Sopron, Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg, and Fejer counties, government party candidates are projected to win all electoral districts except for one.
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