Western European Left's "migrant weapon" may backfire

The European Left has significantly lost its voter base in several countries in recent years. Consequently, the Left is seeking to regain its former strength by building on the votes of new arrivals. Foreign crowds of largely Muslim faith already pose a challenge and a new problem for Europe, but the Palestinian-Israeli war that erupted just over a week ago could exacerbate the situation. This article presents how the Left in Western Europe is striving to strengthen the political influence of Muslims on the continent.

Idomeni, 2016. március 8. Egy migráns német zászlót lenget a Görögországot és Macedóniát elválasztó határkerítés görög oldalán, Idomeni közelében lévõ sátortáborban 2016. március 8-án. A macedón hatóságok szigorították a migránsok belépésének feltételeit, hogy lassítsák a menekültáradatot. A határ görög oldalán már több mint 14 ezer migráns torlódott fel. (MTI/EPA/Valdrin Xhemaj) Fotó: Valdrin Xhemaj

Immigration and political integration are brought back into focus by the brutal - and apparently surprise - attack on Israel, which started on the morning of October 7. Palestinian extremist Hamas militants stormed out of the Gaza Strip, firing thousands of rockets into Israeli territory within hours, killing at least 1200 Jews, including many civilians and children, and kidnapping numerous people. In the aftermath of the events, local Palestinians and other Muslim believers, as well as immigrants and citizens with migrant backgrounds, staged demonstrations in several European capitals in support of the terrorist attack. On October 11, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger expressed concern that the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas had been celebrated on the streets of Berlin after the assault on Israel. In his opinion, "it was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts".

The opinion of the highly respected American politician cannot be disputed, but the question arises as to what processes have led to this point in Western Europe.

Left has built a political strategy on migrants

For decades, left-wing parties have  embraced Europe's predominantly working-class Muslim minority as a natural ally and initially appeared to be the likely beneficiaries of the influx of future voters. The majority of Muslim immigrants across Europe demonstrably vote for left-wing parties: their interests, in social and economic terms,  have generally appeared to be supported by socialist and social democratic parties.

The continuing growth in Europe’s Muslim population is raising a host of political and social questions. Controversies are complicated by the ties that some European Muslims have to religious networks and movements outside of Europe. Today, many Muslim groups serve as interlocutors between Muslims and the governments of the European countries in which they live. This arrangement has often come about at the behest of government officials looking for organizations that can serve as conduits to their Muslim constituents, Pew Research wrote in a report published in 2010.

Targeted campaigns

Immigrants in Europe have often decided elections. In Germany, at the time of the 2013 federal election, at least one in ten voters had an immigrant background, meaning that almost six million migrants were eligible to vote. All of the parties launched a campaign specifically targeting immigrants, and the number of candidates with a migration background increased. The Left, of course, went the furthest, promising all immigrants living in Germany the right to vote and easier visa rules. In 2021, Germany's electorate included some 7.4 million citizens with international roots. This represents 12 percent of the electorate. In addition, millions of new residents from abroad were not allowed to vote yet.

Germany's Social Democrat Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is seeking to push increasingly extreme ideas on immigration through the federal government. In Hesse, for example, the SPD proposed before the state elections in early October that immigrants should be allowed to vote in municipal elections after a six months' stay in Germany. 

The Social Democrats' campaign promise means that foreigners seeking asylum will be able to vote in municipal elections alongside German and EU citizens.

Faeser also presses for faster and easier settlement at national level. The minister's idea was not universally welcomed even within her party, and it is no wonder that in the Hesse elections - where Faeser ran as a candidate for Hesse's premiership - the SPD suffered a historic defeat, coming third with only 15 percent of the votes, behind the AfD growing ever stronger.

Turkish-Dutch party

In 2017, votes from about half of the Dutch citizens of Turkish origin helped the newly formed DENK party to gain three seats in the Dutch Parliament. The low electoral threshold (0.7 percent) is likely to partly explain DENK’s success. The party's entry has contributed to further fragmentation in the Dutch parliament. In the 2021 national elections, DENK consolidated its three parliamentary seats. A further concern is the strong anti-Semitism within the party, whose declared aim is protecting minorities, which in effect means representing the interests of Muslim immigrants.

Almost all French Muslims vote for the Left

 Muslims aged over 18 represented around 6 percent of the population in France in 2016. This does not, however, mean that they represent 6 percent of the voters in France, as French Muslims are not necessarily French citizens. It is telling that 93 percent of the French Muslims voted for left-wing candidate Francois Hollande, according to the findings of a poll conducted by Le Figaro in the second round of the 2012 French presidential elections. Hollande promised voting rights to a specific group of immigrants in 2012 and called for the legalization of illegal migration. In the last French election, 92 percent of Muslims voted for Emmanuel Macron.

Millions of immigrants back the Labour Party in the UK

A large majority of immigrants in Britain have historically supported the Labour Party. In the '70s and '80s their support was more than 80 percent, today it has decreased slightly, but most of them continue to vote for the Left. In 2015, around four million people with a migrant background were eligible to vote in the UK, a third of whom came from India or Pakistan, Magyar Idok  highlighted in an earlier article.

Growing number of migrants receive Italian citizenship

At the beginning of 2020, about 1.5 million naturalized Italians lived in Italy. In 2018, Italy was the second leading EU country after Germany regarding the number of citizenship granted (to 112 500 and 116 800 individuals respectively). Italy is no longer a country of new immigration, so the political integration of immigrant ethnic minorities was an important issue to be included in the political agenda. Despite the foreigners' stable presence in Italy, the Italian political system appears to be highly restrictive and unable to fully cater to the integration request coming from the resident immigrant population.

Growing Muslim influence in the European Parliament

A 2019 Dutch study highlights that discrimination had the strongest effect on migrants' voting behavior among all the elements examined. So the complex phenomenon of social inclusion and social exclusion has a strong impact on the political participation of immigrant groups. Organisations with a Muslim background also have considerable lobbying power in the European Parliament. They see an opportunity on the Left for promoting immigration, while right-wing parties are more likely to pursue more cautious or restrictive immigration policies.

Cover photo: A migrant waves a German flag at a tent camp near Idomeni, on the Greek side of the border fence separating Greece and Macedonia, on March 8,  2016 (Photo: MTI/EPA/Valdrin Xhemaj)