PR Move or Major Success? Security Expert on Russia-Ukraine War Developments

Moscow also confirms that Ukraine units have successfully crossed the Dnieper River at Kherson, gaining a foothold on the Russian-controlled eastern bank. "These have more significance from a public relations perspective than from a military one," Jozsef Kis-Benedek explained to Magyar Nemzet. The security policy expert also spoke about the potential scenarios that could arise with the onset of winter and whether the situation could be described as a stalemate.

Kiszelivka, 2023. november 10. Egy ukrán katona nézi az orosz csapatok által hátrahagyott lõszertároló dobozokat a Herszon megyében fekvõ Kiszelivkában 2023. november 10-én. MTI/AP/Efrem Lukackij Fotó: Efrem Lukackij

Ukrainian units managing to cross the Dnieper River at Kherson and reinforcing their positions on the east bank is being hailed as a major success by the Western and Ukrainian media. The breakthrough was confirmed by Moscow, which also said that the Ukrainian soldiers who had crossed will face "hellfire".

This is a partial success, but it is not decisive from the point of view of the war, since this is not the main direction that they could and want to continue operations,

 explained Jozsef Kis-Benedek in response to Magyar Nemzet's question. The security policy expert said that the aim of the counter-attack was to reach the sea, but this is still a good eighty kilometers away.

Ukrainian marines cross the Dnieper River at the front line near Kherson in eastern Ukraine on October 14, 2023.
Photo: MTI/AP/Alex Babenko

Since mid-October, Russian military bloggers close to the armed forces have repeatedly reported that small groups of Ukrainian troops have successfully crossed the river, but the information had never officially been confirmed by Russia. When contacted by foreign journalists earlier this week, the Kremlin refused to respond and deferred questions to the Defense Ministry. The ministry then said separately that a small group of Ukrainian soldiers had been captured "trying to land on the eastern bank".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had established a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper, but provided no further details.

Small groups of Ukrainian soldiers have advanced on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River and captured the small village of Krynky, according to a Telegram report by Vladimir Saldo, the Russia-appointed governor of the Kherson region. Saldo's words are the first from a senior Russian official to acknowledge that Ukraine has managed to gain some positions on the Russian-controlled side of the river. 

He added that the Ukrainian soldiers are facing a "fiery inferno" of Russian artillery missiles and drones and have suffered heavy losses.

PR move

Crossing a river is always more difficult for those wanting to get across, since the means for traversing must be provided, and those on the other side are set up for defense,

 the expert said. Holding and consolidating any position on the Russian-controlled side of the Dnieper can pose a tough challenge for Ukrainian troops. The marshy terrain makes amphibious landings difficult, and Russia has significant military superiority and assets on the eastern side of the river.

"Such a crossing is never easy, it wasn't easy for the Ukrainians either, and the Russians can now prepare to prevent further more major crossings of the river," Kis-Benedek added.

Therefore, with small units they perform ancillary operations, which are significant more in terms of PR, instead of more extensive military operations,

he stressed.

The biggest difficulty after the landing is to advance as it is primarily swamplands, impeding mobility. He opined that the positions the Ukrainians have now gained are far from certain to be maintained in the long term, given the Russian military superiority and expected massive response.

Energy system is likely target

Russian and Ukrainian forces have been in a stand-off on opposite banks of the Dnieper River since Moscow withdrew from the western part of the Kherson region last November. This was the last significant territorial change in the conflict, since then neither side has managed to achieve a significant breakthrough.

Despite the relatively static front line, both Kyiv and the Kremlin have denied that the conflict had reached a stalemate.

If a major rainy spell comes, the already less than rapid military operations will slow even further, but that does not mean an end to the war, the expert pointed out. "It is conceivable," he continued, that "there will be more air operations, but they could also attack by sea, as there are no obstacles to that."

Both sides would strive to diminish the other's energy system. Just as could be seen last year when the Russians eroded the Ukrainian energy system, this can be expected this year as well, but now the Ukrainians will also try to attack the infrastructure related to the operational areas. What must be kept in mind is that Russia has multiple energy supply systems that can be used to compensate for possible outages,

 the security expert warned.

Stalemate or not?

Although there have not been many territorial changes in the past year, Jozsef Kis-Benedek would not use the term "stalemate", as the frontlines are constantly moving.

One must realize that neither the Russians nor the Ukrainian forces supported by the West are in a hurry. The Ukrainians are getting enough support to just keep the war going, but they won't win. And the Russians are in no rush, they are waiting to see what happens in the West as there will also be an American election, and supplies and recruits are running out,

the expert pointed out, noting that battles on the eastern front are ongoing. The levels of strength are fairly balanced, as the Russians are deploying only as much force as they have to. 

It is conceivable that at some point a stalemate will develop, and the voices calling for an end to the war are getting stronger both in the East and in the West.

Kis-Benedek said the conflict may gradually wither away, but there are still areas where the tensions are maintained. 

Cover photo:  A Ukrainian soldier looking through ammunition boxes left behind by Russian troops in Kyselivka, Kherszon Oblast. Taken on November 10, 2023 (Photo: MTI/AP/Efrem Lukackij)