Russia-Ukraine War: Could Dwindling Western Aid Cause Ukraine's Downfall

It was two years ago, on February 24, that the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, bringing about major changes across Europe, including a transformation of the security situation. While many countries, especially the Baltic states, fear an imminent world war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing for another counterattack. As there is palpable movement on the front line, it is not typical trench warfare, the security expert explained. He also told Magyar Nemzet what to expect during the military conflict, and whether the threat of a potential world war is imminent.

Harkiv, 2024. január 23. Hatalmas lángoszlop tör a magasba, miután találat ért egy gázvezetéket Harkiv határában 2024. január 23-án. A legutóbbi orosz légitámadás következtében legkevesebb két ember életét vesztette, négyen megsebesültek. MTI/EPA/Szergej Kozlov Fotó: Szergej Kozlov

"There is modest progress on the front on the Russian side, and the Ukrainians are absolutely on the defensive, unable to conduct offensive operations. At the same time, we can see that the Ukrainians are trying to strengthen their position in the Black Sea region, and they intend to carry out military operations with Western assistance," Jozsef Kis-Benedek summarized the situation on the front in the Russia-Ukraine war in response to Magyar Nemzet's inquiry.

 

Russia launched its troops against its western neighbor exactly two years ago, on February 24, 2022.  However, there is no sign that the fighting will stop, the security expert said, adding that neither Moscow nor Kyiv have the intention to reach any agreement.

Russia continues to lay claim to four Ukrainian regions, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson, but it is unclear where the Russian troops would stop, Jozsef Kis-Benedek pointed out.

He recalled that a few days ago, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, referred to Odessa as a Russian city, and that there were "ideas of confrontation" emerging about Transnistria. The expert does not rule out the possibility that the Russian troops could advance as far as the Dnieper River. "On the Ukrainian side, we see just the opposite: they say they want to retake the four regions and Crimea," he explained, adding that to this end Ukraine would require huge amounts of Western weapons, which are not available at the moment. To illustrate this, he said that the US has been sending less military aid for a few months, while the Russians also need support with one of their main partners being North for buying artillery ammunition.

Zelensky's hope in another counterattack

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shared his war plans for 2024. He said that this year they will engage not only in defense, but are preparing for a new counterattack, MTI quoted the president as saying in interview with Fox News.

Jozsef Kis-Benedek, security policy expert (Milton Friedman University)

At the same time, Zelensky noted that defense is not an easy task either, and in the context of last year's counteroffensive, he pointed out that the lives of soldiers must be taken into account. Last year, Ukraine announced a major counteroffensive in the spring, but not only was the operation delayed for months - postponed until the summer - but they were by no means able to deal such a blow to the Russians as they had expected. The autumn military operations also met a similar fate.

However, the Ukrainian president now promised that 'there will be surprises for the Russians'. At the same time, Zelensky asked for more weapons, saying that Ukrainian forces need Patriot systems, as well as weapons with a range of at least 300 kilometers.

Is a third world war threatening Europe?

The Russia-Ukraine war brought major changes in Europe, one of the most crucial being the transformation of the security situation. There have been conjectures from a growing number of countries, especially the Baltic states, that after Ukraine, Russia would attack a NATO member state.

This move, however, would clearly lead to a world war, as article 5 of the NATO treaty stipulates that if one member state is attacked, the other members must come to its aid. In Jozsef Kis-Benedek's view, suggestions about a possible world war are baseless.

Putin doesn't say irrational things. He is well aware of the capabilities of Russia and NATO,

the expert said, dispelling doubts.

The Baltic states once belonged to the Soviet Union, he pointed out, which is part of the reason for their fear. However, what we see is that countries in Europe are strengthening their defense, which is a natural reaction, Jozsef Kis-Benedek remarked. "Preparation for war, redeployment of forces is a completely natural thing, we will see this happen in the future as well. But it does not mean that they want war," he stressed.

Cover photo: A huge column of flames goes up after a strike on a gas pipeline in the outskirts of Kharkiv on January 23, 2024 (Photo: MTI/Sergey Kozlov)