Distribution of Votes, If Elections Were Held This Sunday

Fidesz may receive every second vote at the upcoming European Parliament elections.

Illustration (Photo: MTI/Gabor Kiss)

One month before the European Parliament elections, the list of the Fidesz-Christian Democrat (KDNP) party alliance is clearly in the lead, according to a fresh poll by the Nezopont Institute. Peter Magyar's party is in second place, followed by the DK-MSZP-Dialogue (Párbeszed) coalition in third place and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party, with left-wing voters divided between them. Meanwhile, it appears that neither Momentum, nor Jobbik would secure seats in the European Parliament indipendently.

Ahead of the European Parliament elections, the parties' first challenge was to collect the 20,000 valid signatures required for a list. The governing parties were the first to submit the collected signatures, but some parties that announced a list have struggled to collect the required numbers: Peter Jakab's party failed to mobilize, rendering it unable to participate in the elections, the pollster says.

 Nezopont wanted to know how parties would perform in different electoral situations.

 

The list of the Fidesz-Christian Democrat (KDNP) alliance (48%) continues to lead the party race with one month to go before the European Parliament elections,

and it would also secure 44 percent of the votes during Hungary's parliamentary elections, matching its 2014 election results. The difference in support is attributed to Fidesz supporters being more proactive regarding the upcoming European Parliament elections, compared to the more distant general elections that currently have no stakes, as pointed out by the Nezopont Institute.

The government's right-wing opposition also has good reason to hope for winnig mandates. The Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk Mozgalom would not just secure seats in the Hungarian parliament (6%), but with its five percent result it could also win an EP mandate, they said.

Apparently, the left would suffer many big losses in both the Hungarian, and the European elections. 

Capitalizing on the current public sentiment to reshuffle the opposition, Peter Magyar's party, Tisza, has emerged as the most popular opposition party (with an estimated support of 21% if the EP elections were held "this Sunday"). The joint list of the Democratic Coalition (DK)-MSZP-Dialogue (Parbeszed) alliance (12%) and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (7%) constitute the other two left-wing poles, the pollster said.

The failure of Peter Jakab to submit a list could result in fewer left-wing votes being lost in the EP elections, as Mr Jakab's voter base of around 2 percent could strengthen Peter Magyar's Tisza party and (ex-PM) Gyurcsany's coalition based on secondary preferences, as estimated by the Nezopont Institute.

Momentum (1%) and Jobbik (1%), the two parties that each secured an EP mandate five years ago, are nowhere near the five-percent threshold. Although Gabor Vona's party (3%) is ahead of them, but it cannot expect to secure any mandates either. LMP (1%) and Peter Marki-Zay's party (1%) are also far from winning any seats, the pollster said.

In terms of support for left-wing parties, there is no significant difference of likely results between a general election and a European Parliament election, if votes were cast "this Sunday". Peter Magyar's party (22%) and the DK-MSZP-Dialogue coalition (13%) would each secure only one percentage point more at Hungary's parliamentary election than in the upcoming EP elections. Of all the other left-wing parties, only MKKP (7%) would be able to secure setas independently in the Hungarian parliament, the institute has said. 

Cover photo: Illustration (Photo: MTI/Gabor Kiss)