Perhaps not since 44 years ago has there been such heightened anticipation for the inauguration of a new US President as there is now for Donald Trump’s. In December 1980, it was primarily the families of American hostages in Tehran anxiously awaiting Jimmy Carter’s departure and Ronald Reagan’s swearing-in, after Carter had failed for a year to secure their release from Iranian captivity. This time, however, it is Joe Biden and his Western allies - supported and cheered on by the military-industrial complex - who have effectively held half the world hostage by needlessly prolonging the war in Ukraine. As Biden’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken phrased it at NATO: every last dollar will be “pushed out the door” before Trump’s inauguration on January 20 - directed, of course, to Ukraine.
That said,
Trump’s opponents and key stakeholders, including the Ukrainian president, are well aware that unconditional American support is coming to an end. Starting in January, the winds of global politics will shift. Recent remarks by Volodymyr Zelensky reveal his recognition of this reality, as well as the importance of cultivating a good relationship with Keith Kellogg, Trump’s likely special envoy to Ukraine, who is - luckily - already known to Hungarian government circles.
Moscow, in the meantime, is far from being idle. The nearly three years of war in Ukraine have demonstrated that Russia "reads" the West better than the West understands Russia. If a Christmas prisoner exchange and ceasefire materialize - something Viktor Orban has persistently advocated - it could lay a strong foundation for further progress. Even a lasting ceasefire would be a major achievement after hundreds of thousands of deaths, countless wounded, and millions of displaced refugees. Such a ceasefire might even be called peace. After all, in the classical sense, the two Koreas are not at peace, yet they have refrained from major hostilities for over seven decades now.
Expectations are no less intense ahead of Trump’s inauguration in another key flashpoint of the globe: the Middle East. The stakes are particularly high in Israel and Iran, although they are scarcely lower in the region’s other nations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces intense domestic challenges and values Washington’s support. He got along far better with Trump than with Joe Biden.
(Incidentally, Trump is considering to appoint Mike Huckabee - a former Republican primary rival, former governor, Baptist minister, and television commentator - as US Ambassador to Jerusalem.) Palestinians are disheartened by Trump’s return, while Israeli factions to Netanyahu’s right hope for a free hand from Washington to annex Palestinian territories. US-Iran relations will hinge on Israel and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon; how confrontational these parties will become next year remains to be seen. In the ever-complex Middle Eastern equation, Syria has emerged as a new factor: the sudden fall of the Assad regime highlights the unintended consequences of global politics, which are linked to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza (Lebanon) and shifts in focus for Russia and Iran. The question is: what kind of future will unfold in Damascus after Assad? We'll see in 2025. But for now, the United States, exhausted from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is unlikely to send its troops to defend the so-called "free world" in Aleppo.
America’s greatest global rival, of course, is not Iran or even Russia, but China. Trump knows this well. Europe, including Hungary, must also remain vigilant about the economic vulnerabilities that a potential trade war could bring.
The President-elect largely won against Kamala Harris by convincing Americans that he could restore order to the country. Recent polls show that 59% of citizens believe the US is on the wrong track, while only 27% believe that it is heading in the right direction.
One key to restoring order is addressing the federal budget, an issue 80–90% of Americans view as urgent. The United States’ national debt is nearly equal to its annual GDP, exceeding $36 trillion. (Trump’s first administration bears some responsibility for this.) Every single day, America spends $1.8 billion on interest payments alone.
Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is a well-known investor who adheres to the “three by three” principle. He aims to raise the US growth rate to 3%, reduce the budget deficit to 3% (from 6.28%), and increase daily oil production by 3 million barrels (from 13 million).
Mr. Bessent is poised to become the highest-ranking openly gay politician in US history. Not only did he once work for George Soros, but he was also Soros’s business partner in the hedge fund responsible for breaking the British pound in 1992. Before supporting Trump, he was a known donor to Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s campaigns.
The world is not black and white! But given Trump’s track record, one thing is certain: he wants to ensure that money is in reliable hands. This goal aligns with the streamlining of the government sector, currently bloated with bureaucrats and deep-state saboteurs. This reduction effort has already been outlined in the Project 2025 program document, prepared by right-wing backgorund insitutions and think tanks. The main figures responsible for this effort are Elon Musk, the world’s foremost entrepreneur, and Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman and former Republican primary opponent of Trump. Notably, Hungarian government circles also have personal ties to both individuals. Meanwhile, the liberal New York Times expresses horror at reports that Trump’s team is subjecting candidates for key positions to "loyalty tests." This is ironic, considering that during Trump’s presidency from 2017 to 2021, the American mainstream often delighted in mocking how the bureaucracy sabotaged Trump's work, how his "colleagues" undermined him, and how they even swiped documents from his desk.
In 2025, the composition of Congress - with Republican leadership in both chambers - and the two-thirds conservative majority on the Supreme Court will create more favorable conditions for Donald Trump’s governance compared to the political landscape he faced upon first entering office, in 2017.
Of course, we Hungarians are primarily interested in how the change at the White House will affect Europe, including our country. In Washington, Hungary is primarily of interest as a NATO member, and next year the organization will hold a summit in The Hague. Ukraine is likely to be the main issue, but the new situation could significantly reduce the pressure on Hungary from the US with the Western European countries following suit. (Alex Hemingway, an American businessman well-known in Hungary, told Magyar Nemzet in an interview in November that no one around him in California understands why the United States has spent 180 billion dollars on Ukraine. Neither does Trump, probably.) Although Trump is unlikely to turn his back on NATO, he will certainly push for a further increase in European defense spending, beyond the much-mentioned two per cent of GDP.
Hungarian government circles also expect a significant easing of political pressure in bilateral relations. This is based not only on the good personal relationship between Donald Trump and Viktor Orban, but also on the wide network of contacts that has been built between Budapest and the president's people in recent years. First of all, Budapest is expecting the US to do a volte-face in two issues, with which the Biden administration punished Hungary on political grounds, causing harm to Hungarian citizens.
One is the termination of the tax convention for the avoidance of double taxation with Hungary, the other is last years's reduction of the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) validity period (for spurious reasons), making travel for Hungarians more difficult. The new US intentions will also be reflected in the activities of the next ambassador to Budapest, whom Hungarian diplomatic circles expect to arrive in the fall. David Pressman's departure meets popular demand, but until his successor arrives, a charge d'affaires will lead the mission in Budapest's Liberty Square.
