No Real Prospect for Ukraine’s EU Membership

The uncertain state of democratic institutions, deficiencies in the rule of law, and pervasive corruption in Ukraine's judicial system are just some of the factors that make the country's EU accession unrealistic, even over the course of several decades. Furthermore, our northeastern neighbor's economic performance is a fraction of the EU average, while it also struggles with severe inflation and unemployment. Compounding these challenges, Russia continues to view the war-torn country as a buffer zone, underscoring Moscow's ongoing efforts to influence Ukraine's domestic politics. In the upcoming installments of this series, we will further examine the potential impacts that Ukraine's future EU membership could have both on the functioning of the member states, and the EU itself.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (Photo: MTI/EPA/Clemens Bilan)

Although Ukraine officially began accession talks with the European Union (EU) last summer, there are numerous obstacles that make the country's membership highly unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Fragile independence 

Having seceded from the Soviet Union in 1991, our northeastern neighbor continues to be seen by Russia as a strategic buffer zone or border region for security. This perception has also played a role in the fluctuating geopolitical orientation of Ukraine over the past decades, marked by alternating pro-Russian and pro-Western governments. Attempts at Western integration—initiated exclusively by the latter type of administration—have consistently faced significant difficulties.

For example, when President Petro Poroshenko signed an association agreement with the EU in 2014—primarily focused on free trade—the EU set forth fundamental reform requirements for Ukraine. These included upholding the rule of law, responsible governance, and minority rights. The EU's expectations were underscored by former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who, as recently as March 2016, excluded the possibility of Ukraine's EU membership within a 20–25-year timeframe.

Hasty promise

It is also noteworthy that, of the three foreign policy collaborations Ukraine has been able to join in recent years, two included participation from Russia and Belarus. Belarus was involved in the Eastern Partnership, while Russia took part in the Black Sea Synergy.

It is true that when President Volodymyr Zelensky signed Ukraine’s EU membership application less than a week after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, the process that usually takes years or even decades was completed in just a few days. In March 2022, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for EU institutions to begin negotiations with Ukraine on its EU candidate status.

Nevertheless, the resolution refers to Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, which - for instance - lays down the conditions for membership applications, including respect for human dignity, democracy, the rule of law, and human rights, including the rights of minorities. In addition, Ukraine would have had to meet several other conditions in order to start accession talks. Among these are the so-called Copenhagen criteria, defined in 1993, which include the establishment of a functioning market economy, as well as the ability of the applicant country to cope with competition and market forces within the EU. Another requirement is the ability to fulfill the obligations of membership, which includes the effective implementation of EU laws, standards, and policies (the acquis communautaire), as well as the commitment to the goals of political, economic, and monetary union.

Democracy deficit

The document also mentions the need for institutions that guarantee the stability of democracy. However, as highlighted in Chatham House's 2023 democracy analysis, Ukraine has faced issues with both democracy and the rule of law, both historically and in the present. For instance, the 2004 elections, which triggered the Orange Revolution, were not considered free and fair. Furthermore, in 2014, the democratically elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, was forced to flee the country. Chatham House also notes that Ukraine lacks a deeply entrenched party system, with political parties often serving the interests of elites and oligarchs. This issue is further compounded by widespread corruption within the judiciary. Additionally, although Ukraine's constitution allows for delays in elections due to the ongoing state of war, the parliamentary elections originally scheduled for October 2023 have yet to take place, and the presidential election, planned for March 2024, is similarly postponed indefinitely.

Furthernmore, a Ukrainian research institute has estimated that legal harmonization with the EU would take 13–15 years, with significant challenges stemming from Ukraine's legislation still being rooted in the Soviet system. Aligning this framework with EU legal norms would require immense effort.

Furthermore, It's also worth poiting out that, on territories currently occupied by Russia, governance and enforcement of state authority are fundamentally impossible.

Corruption at every level

The use of aid funds is also embroiled by serious concerns, as Ukraine has yet to rid itself of systemic corruption. Additionally, parts of Ukraine's political elite have historically been financially influenced by Moscow.

It is also worth noting that, in recent years, the rule of law criteria have increasingly taken center stage in the EU's enlargement and accession processes. When Hungary joined in 2004, there was no dedicated chapter on this topic. However, with Romania's and Bulgaria's accession in 2007, it became a key focus. A so-called Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM) was established to monitor their progress, and Austria and the Netherlands later blocked these two countries from joining the Schengen Area, citing a report issued by Brussels under the CVM, which highlighted shortcomings in tackling organized crime. During Croatia's accession, rule-of-law criteria were even more rigorously enforced, and for Western Balkan candidates like Montenegro and Serbia, these requirements have become even more critical.

An economy in ruins 

Looking at the economic criteria for EU accession, Ukraine's membership seems a distant cry from reality. Even before the war, Ukraine's market economy and competitiveness faced significant criticism, and the situation has only worsened with the armed conflict.

It's a fact that if Ukraine were to join, it would become by far the poorest EU member state, even when considering the seven other countries currently awaiting accession. In 2021, before the war, Ukraine's GDP per capita was only 12 percent of the EU average. By 2022, Bulgaria—the EU’s poorest member—had a GDP per capita three times higher. Ukraine’s unemployment rate in 2022 was 24.5 percent. For comparison, when Poland, Slovakia, and Croatia joined the EU, their unemployment rates were all below 20 percent. Even Croatia, which had the highest unemployment rate in the region in 2022, did not exceed 7 percent. Furthermore, looking at several other indicators, such as budget deficits, inflation, and the share of consumption within its gross domestic product, Ukraine is also in a much worse position than other countries in our region.

(To be continued)